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HKB09/2 Pa
23
MFN be pary 6. раса
M
72
127725
MDHIAN 2985
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FM WASHINGTON
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 2230
OF 121545Z OCTOBER 92
ns
13/100
INFO PRIORITY UKMIS NEW YORK, UKREP BRUSSELS, BONN, PARIS, ACTOR INFO ROUTINE OTTAWA, HONG KONG
INFO SAVING U.S. POSTS
PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
SUMMARY
1. BUSH FAILS TO USE DEBATE TO TURN THE RACE AROUND. PEROT THE SURPRISE SUCCESS OF THE EVENING, BUT QUESTIONABLE WHETHER HE CAN TRANSLATE THIS INTO VOTES. CLINTON AVOIDS MISTAKES BUT DOES NOT INSPIRE: SUPPORTS ENFORCEMENT OF NO FLY ZONE IN BOSNIA AND SUGGESTS LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO ON BOSNIA. EXCHANGE ON CHINA/MFN.
DETAIL
2.
THE FIRST OF THREE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES TOOK PLACE IN ST LOUIS ON 11 OCTOBER WITH AN ESTIMATED AUDIENCE OF 70 MILLION. THE DEBATES ARE THE LAST MAJOR MEDIA DEBATE BEFORE THE ELECTION.
3.
BUSH NEEDED TO USE THE DEBATE TO TURN HIS CAMPAIGN AROUND. HE WAS RUNNING 10-18 POINTS BEHIND CLINTON, AND THE CLUMSY ACCUSATIONS ABOUT CLINTON'S VISIT TO MOSCOW AS A STUDENT HAD BACKFIRED AND ACTUALLY MADE THE PRESIDENT LESS POPULAR IN THE DAYS IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO THE DEBATE. THE PRESIDENT TURNED IN AN ADEQUATE PERFORMANCE EMPHASISING THE NEED FOR EXPERIENCE AND PAINTING CLINTON AS A TAX AND SPEND LIBERAL. BUT HE WAS SURPRISINGLY PASSIVE AND FAILED TO MAKE A CONVINCING CASE FOR RE-ELECTION. ONE BOMBSHELL THE SUGGESTION THAT, IN A SECOND TERM, BAKER WOULD REMAIN IN THE WHITE HOUSE AND MASTERMIND A DOMESTIC RECOVERY PACKAGE FELL FLAT. HIS REPEATED EFFORTS TO ARGUE THAT THE ECONOMY WAS NOT AS BAD AS PEOPLE THOUGHT WILL HAVE REINFORCED THE PERCEPTION THAT HE IS OUT OF TOUCH.
4.
-
-
HIS
THE SURPRISE OF THE EVENING WAS THE STRONG SHOWING BY PEROT. WHILE HE HAD NO SOLUTIONS TO THE COUNTRY'S PROBLEMS HE PRESENTED A CONVINCING CRITIQUE OF WASHINGTON AND HIS FOLKSY ONE LINERS WERE IN MARKED CONTRAST TO THE OTHER TWO CANDIDATES' LACK OF SPONTANEITY.
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