CONFIDENTIAL
DENTIAL HAS ONK
TOP COPY Q DIST?
177473
MDLIAN 0741
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO PRIORITY FCO
TELNO 2562
OF 260952Z OCTOBER 92
AND TO PRIORITY PEKING
INFO ROUTINE WASHINGTON
78
р.а
YR TELNO 1523: CHINA/MFN: LOBBYING A CLINTON ADMINISTRATION
1. LIKE YOU, WE ARE VERY MUCH ALERT TO THE THREAT POSED TO CHINA'S MFN STATUS BY A CLINTON PRESIDENCY. OUR OFFICE IN WASHINGTON IS IN CLOSE TOUCH WITH THE EMBASSY ON THIS ISSUE.
2. HOWEVER, WE CONSIDER THAT THE SORT OF ACTION DESCRIBED IN PARA 3 OF YOUR TUR SHOULD NOT BE CONTEMPLATED FOR THE TIME BEING. WE BELIEVE WHAT IS NEEDED NOW IS TO START DEVISING A COMPREHENSIVE AND COHERENT STRATEGY TO LOBBY THE NEW CONGRESS AND A CLINTON PRESIDENCY. TO BE EFFECTIVE, THIS STRATEGY MUST INVOLVE DOMESTIC ALLIES IN THE US, MANY OF WHOM HAVE GOOD CONTACTS WITH THE CLINTON CAMP, AND WITH WHOM OUR WASHINGTON OFFICE HAS A VERY WELL-ESTABLISHED WORKING RELATIONSHIP.
3. GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF COALITION-BUILDING, WE WOULD RUN THE RISK OF ERODING OUR OWN CREDIBILITY VIS-A-VIS OUR DOMESTIC ALLIES IF WE WERE TO START EXPLORING THE OPTIONS IDENTIFIED SO FAR WITH CLINTON'S ADVISERS AT THIS EARLY STAGE. ALSO, GIVEN THE VERY TRANSPARENT NATURE OF THE WASHINGTON SCENE, WE NEED TO GUARD AGAINST AROUSING CHINESE SENSITIVITIES.
4. WE ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT CHINA'S RE-ACCESSION TO GATT WOULD OBVIATE THE NEED FOR ANNUAL CERTIFICATION OF CHINA'S MFN STATUS
UNDER JACKSON-VANIK. FOR SO LONG AS JACKSON-VANIK STAYS ON THE US STATUTE BOOK CAND THE CHANCES OF IT BEING AMENDED OR REPEALED ARE SLIM), WE BELIEVE THAT THE US ADMINISTRATION, WHETHER UNDER BUSH OF CLINTON, WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY FEEL OBLIGED TO ENTER A RESERVATION UNDER ARTICLE XXXV OF GATT. THE TERMS OF SUCH A RESERVATION WILL NO DOUBT BE CAREFULLY WORDED TO ADDRESS CHINESE SENSITIVITIES AS FAR AS POSSIBLE, PERHAPS AFTER DISCREET BILATERAL CONSULTATIONS ON THE SUBJECT.
PATTEN
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