m.pus.sos2
CONFIDENTIAL
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NATO. In the face of budgetary and Congressional
pressure for further cuts, it is not clear how firmly
Clinton would hold the line at the reduced levels which he himself has mentioned (75-100,000) for US forces in Europe. His campaign statements refer to maintaining the US commitment to NATO "as further European security arrangements evolve".
The other strand of Clinton's foreign policy which would be likely to cause us difficulty is a return to a more moralising approach. Clinton has distanced himself from Carter, for example in his willingness to use force if necessary.
But many of Clinton's advisers figured in the Carter Administration; and under Clinton we could expect a return to a sharper emphasis on human rights and democracy. There could be a number of specific problems:
MFN and Hong Kong. Clinton would make the extension of MFN status to China conditional on progress on human rights, free markets and weapons sales. We have made clear to his advisers the implications for Hong Kong.
Nuclear Testing. Clinton is committed to the achievement of a "phased comprehensive test ban". Once elected, he would come under strong pressure to extend the existing US moratorium imposed by Congress so long as the Russians also did so.
Safeguarding our own position could become increasingly problematies difficult.
UN Reform. Clinton would like to see the US taking the UN more seriously, and favours the creation of a UN Rapid Deployment Force. But on the negative side, from our point of view, one of his few specific foreign policy proposals so far is to give Japan and Germany permanent membership of the UN Security Council. We have pointed out the difficulties to his advisers.
Northern Ireland. Clinton's advisers reassure us that we should not take too seriously campaign promises made in response to questions from an Irish-American panel in New York. Nevertheless the "moralising" element in the Democratic Party could combine with the ethnic lobby to put pressure on Clinton on Northern Ireland, eg for the appointment of a US peace envoy.
We should not read too much significance into campaign statements. These can often bear little relation to how a candidate will behave when in office. Nevertheless, the overall impression of Clinton's agnosticism on many foreign policy issues is striking. As one of his close associates remarked recently, "He doesn't have an opinion on foreign stuff yet".
CONFIDENTIAL