CONFIDENTIAL
FM WASHINGTON
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 2497
OF 122335Z NOVEMBER 92
044665
MDHIAN 7484
94
CONFIDENTIAL
HWB ou/z
TOP COPY Q DIST?
INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG, UKREP JLG HONG KONG, PEKING, DTI, ACTOR
MY TELNO 4 TO HONG KONG: ADMINISTRATION ON MEN
SUMMARY
1.
U.S./HONG KONG: LOBBYING THE CLINTON
OUR AIM IS TO SECURE UNCONDITIONAL RENEWAL OF MFN. THAT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT, AS CLINTON WILL NOT VETO LEGISLATION LINKING MFN TO HUMAN RIGHTS. WE MUST AIM TO SECURE A DELAY, TO ALLOW MORE TIME FOR REFLECTION, AND SEEK TO ENSURE THAT THE NEW ADMINISTRATION ADOPTS AN APPROACH WHICH GIVES THEM MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY AND DISCRETION. WE HAVE PLANS FOR AN EXTENSIVE LOBBYING CAMPAIGN THROUGH TO THE INAUGURATION AND BEYOND.
DETAIL
WE HAVE DISCUSSED OUR STRATEGY FOR TACKLING A CLINTON ADMINISTRATION ON MFN WITH THE HONG KONG ECONOMIC AND TRADE OFFICE
2.
(HKETO),
PROSPECTS
3. CLINTON WILL PROBABLY HOPE NOT TO HAVE TO ADDRESS MFN FOR CHINA UNTIL NEARER THE TIME OF THE ANNUAL RENEWAL IN JUNE. BUT HE HAS ALREADY STATED THAT RENEWAL OF MFN FOR CHINA WILL DEPEND ON THE CHINESE PERFORMANCE OVER HUMAN RIGHTS. AN INCOMING SECRETARY OF STATE WILL HAVE TO REITERATE THAT POSITION DURING HIS CONFIRMATION HEARINGS. FIFTY-NINE SENATORS SUPPORTED THE BILL THAT WAS VETOED BY BUSH THIS YEAR. THERE IS NO LIKELIHOOD OF CLINTON VETOING SUCH LEGISLATION.
4. NEVERTHELESS, IN OUR LOBBYING, OF COURSE WE SHOULD PRESS FOR UNCONDITIONAL RENEWAL. WE WILL EMPHASISE THAT, GIVEN THE DIFFICULTIES OF DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN PRIVATE PRODUCED AND STATE PRODUCED GOODS, SANCTIONS COULD NOT BE LIMITED TO STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES. THE HKETO WILL WORK THROUGH ITS COMMERCIAL CONTACTS (BUSINESS ASSOCIATIONS ETC.) TO ENSURE THAT AMERICAN BUSINESS GROUPS, WHO STAND TO LOSE IF MFN IS WITHDRAWN, TAKE THE SAME LINE.
5.
BUT, GIVEN THE EMPHASIS IN HIS CAMPAIGN ON HUMAN RIGHTS AND HIS
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