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FM WASHINGTON
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 458
OF 270056Z FEBRUARY 92
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MAM113 041/2
INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING, HONG KONG, ACTOR
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ifth pls
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27/2
116071
MDHIAN 4616
OUR TELNOS 195 AND 438: CHINA MEN STATUS
SUMMARY
1. SENATE PASS LEGISLATION TO ATTACH CONDITIONS TO RENEWAL OF MFN FOR CHINA. BUT INSUFFICIENT VOTES TO OVERTURN A PRESIDENTIAL VETO.
DETAIL
2.
AS FORECAST IN TURS, THE SENATE PASSED LEGISLATION ON 25 FEBRUARY TO SET CONDITIONS FOR RENEWAL OF CHINA'S MFN STATUS LATER THIS YEAR. THE LEGISLATION WOULD REQUIRE THE PRESIDENT TO CERTIFY THAT THE CHINESE HAD MADE PROGRESS IN A NUMBER OF AREAS BEFORE MEN COULD BE EXTENDED BEYOND 2 JULY. THE CONDITIONS INCLUDE THE RELEASE OF PRISONERS DETAINED AFTER TIANANMEN SQUARE, CURTAILMENT OF GROSS VIOLATIONS OF HUMAN RIGHTS, TERMINATION OF RESTRICTIVE TRADE PRACTICES, AND CLEAR CHINESE SUPPORT FOR NON-PROLIFERATION. BUT THE VOTE (59 TO 39) FELL SHORT OF THE TWO THIRDS MAJORITY REQUIRED TO OVERRIDE THE EXPECTED PRESIDENTIAL VETO.
COMMENT
3.
ALTHOUGH
THIS WAS A REASONABLE RESULT FOR THE ADMINISTRATION. THERE WAS A SMALL REDUCTION IN SUPPORT FROM THE SUMMER TOTAL OF 44 COUR TELNO 1935) THIS MIGHT HAVE BEEN BECAUSE SOME SENATORS, KNOWING A VETO WAS INEVITABLE, REGARDED THIS AS A FREE VOTE. BUT THE VOTE WAS PRECEDED BY A RARE CLOSED SESSION OF THE SENATE TO DISCUSS THE INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING PROVIDED TO THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE LAST WEEK ON CHINESE WEAPONS PROLIFERATION. ALTHOUGH THIS, APPARENTLY, STRESSED THAT THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE THAT CHINA HAD TRANSFERRED MISSILES TO IRAN OR SYRIA, A FEW SENATORS WERE CLEARLY CONCERNED AT CHINA'S ACTIVITIES, AND MAY HAVE SWITCHED THEIR VOTES ACCORDINGLY.
4.
OUR ADMINISTRATION CONTACTS HAVE TOLD US THAT THE PRESIDENT INTENDS TO VETO THE LEGISLATION VERY SOON. THE DEMOCRATS ARE
LIKELY TO WANT TO DELAY A VETO OVERRIDE DEBATE IN THE HOPE THAT THE
CHINESE DO SOMETHING TO CAUSE THE SENATE MOOD TO CHANGE. THEY COULD IN THEORY DELAY UNTIL THE END OF THE SESSION (IE NOVEMBER)
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