CONFIDENTIAL
TOP COP Q DIST?
40
046044
MDLIAN 8759
CONFIDENTIAL
FM WASHINGTON
TO PRIORITY FCO
TELNO 1576
OF 13221OZ JULY 92
AND TO PRIORITY HONG KONG, PEKING, ACTOR
39
YOUR TELNO 849
CHINA'S MEN STATUS: LEGCO DEBATE
SUMMARY
ре
per.
14/7
1. NO CONGRESSIONAL REACTION TO DATE. MAIN BATTLE OVER
PRESIDENTIAL VETO LIKELY TO COME IN LATTER PART OF SEPTEMBER.
DETAIL
2 =
THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ANY CONGRESSIONAL REACTION TO THE LEGCO
DEBATE THAT WE HAVE PICKED UP, BUT THE SENATE IS IN RECESS. WE MAY
PICK SOMETHING UP ON 21 JULY WHEN THE HOUSE IS SCHEDULED TO VOTE ON BOTH XJ502 (THE JOINT RESOLUTION SEEKING TOTAL REVOCATION OF MEN
STATUS IN 1992) AND ON HR5318 (THE HOUSE BILL SEEKING
CONDITIONALITY ON MFN STATUS IN 1993).
3.
ONLY ONCE THE HOUSE HAS DISPOSED OF THESE TWO BILLS WOULD WE EXPECT MFN STATUS FOR CHINA TO BE TAKEN UP BY THE SENATE. A VOTE
ON XJ502 AND ON SENATOR MITCHELL'S NEAR CLONE OF HR5318 WILL COME IN AUGUST AT THE EARLIEST. IF SO, THE REAL BATTLE OVER THE PRESIDENT'S EXPECTED VETO OF BOTH BILLS WOULD LIKELY COME IN THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER. AS ON PREVIOUS OCCASIONS, THE MAJORITY IN SUPPORT OF BOTH BILLS IS LIKELY TO EXCEED TWO THIRDS IN THE HOUSE, BUT NOT IN THE SENATE.
TO BE SUSTAINED.
MARSDEN
THE PRESIDENT'S VETO IS THUS LIKELY
YYYY