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AUGUST THE SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE VOTED TO SEND IT TO THE SENATE FLOOR, WITHOUT A RECOMMENDATION ON WHETHER IT SHOULD BE APPROVED. IN A PARTY LINE VOTE, THE COMMITTEE SPLIT 11 (FOR) -
- 9 (AGAINST).
5. THE ARGUMENTS ON BOTH SIDES ARE WELL KNOWN. THE PRESIDENT'S SUPPORTERS ARGUE THAT SETTING ANY CONDITIONS FOR MFN WOULD INVITE THE CHINESE TO RETALIATE, THUS ENDANGERING US JOB PROSPECTS. WITHDRAWAL OF MFN WOULD HURT THOSE IN CHINA WHO ARE ADVOCATING REFORM, AND DIMINISH US INFLUENCE. MEN HAS NEVER BEEN A VERY EFFECTIVE TOOL OF GOVERNMENT POLICY. THE PROPONENTS OF CONDITIONALITY ARGUE THAT THE GROWING US/CHINA TRADE DEFICIT (WHICH
SOME PREDICT COULD BE DOLLARS 20 BILLION THIS YEAR) IS ALREADY CAUSING SUBSTANTIAL US JOB LOSS. THEY SAY THAT THE CONDITIONALITY BILL WOULD NOT HURT REFORMERS, SINCE IT EXCLUDES NON-STATE ENTERPRISES FROM THE SCOPE OF SANCTIONS. THEY ARGUE THAT THERE ARE JUSTIFIABLE CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA'S BEHAVIOUR IN A NUMBER OF AREAS, PARTICULARLY HUMAN RIGHTS, MISSILE AND WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY PROLIFERATION, AND TRADE PRACTICES, BUT THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS UNLIKELY TO APPLY ANY REAL PRESSURE ON PEKING TO IMPROVE.
COMMENT
6.
THE ADMINISTRATION WILL FIGHT HARDER OVER THE CONDITIONALITY BILL IN THE SENATE THAN THEY DID IN THE HOUSE, IN THE HOPE OF ENSURING THAT THEY RETAIN MORE THAN ONE THIRD OF THE VOTES IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN A PRESIDENTIAL VETO. THEY WILL BE HELPED BY THE FACT
THAT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DOUBTS ABOUT THE PRACTICALITY OF TARGETING SANCTIONS ON STATE ENTERPRISES, AND, AS WE HAVE REPORTED, MANY REPUBLICANS IN AN ELECTION YEAR WILL WANT TO STAND BY THE
PRESIDENT. BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE FIGHT.
SIGNED S D PATTISON
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