Methodological notes
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of net output produced within the domestic boundary of a country or. a territory in a specified period, before deducting allowance for consumption of fixed capital. Quarterly GDP estimates for Hong Kong are compiled by the Census & Statistics Department using the 'expenditure' approach, i.e. as the sum of private consumption expenditure, government consumption expenditure, gross domestic fixed capital formation, change in stocks, and exports of goods and services, less imports of goods and services. Under the 'expenditure' approach, GDP is measured as the total value of goods and services produced for final use, net of their import content.
2. Quarterly GDP estimates provide up-to-date information on current economic performance. However, users should note that quarterly GDP and its component estimates are sometimes subject to large revision because of data limitations. Generally speaking, quarterly GDP estimates are less reliable than annual GDP estimates. Moreover, the quarterly GDP series is subject to seasonal variations. For instance, the values of the overall GDP estimates are normally higher in the third and fourth quarters than in the first and second quarters of the same year. It is, therefore, not analytically useful to compare the value of a quarterly GDP estimate with that for the preceding quarter. Such seasonal effects, nevertheless, may be largely removed by calculating the year-on-year growth rate, which compares a quarterly figure with the corresponding one in the preceding year.
3.
The data sources used for compiling quarterly GDP estimates include external trade statistics, quarterly surveys on industrial/business establishments and on households, government accounts and administrative data from government departments and other organisations. Data from annual economic surveys are also incorporated into the quarterly GDP estimates when they are available.
4.
Timeliness is a major concern in producing current economic indicators. It is an international practice to compile and release "preliminary estimates" of quarterly GDP at the earliest possible time by using only partial data. In Hong Kong, preliminary GDP estimates are released about four months after the reference quarter. When more data become available, the quarterly GDP estimates will be revised. All estimates subsequently revised will be called " revised estimates", qualified in brackets by the month and year in which they are released. For those estimates with data from all regular sources incorporated, they are called "final estimates" because they are not subject to further routine revisions.
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