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POLICY IN CONFIDENCE
strategic threat to anyone, but they are nonetheless firmly imbedded in US export control theology and it may take a considerable effort to dislodge them.
Hong Kong's Trade with other South East Asian Countries
The extent to which Hong Kong will depend solely upon the UK
for assistance in establishing a regime for after 1997 would
depend upon the extent to which it can develop friendly trade
relations with other South East Asian countries. This will,
interestingly, also be a function of the extent to which it
can evade any controls which are established.
Conclusion
There seems to be only one possible conclusion to be drawn from the uncertain factors involved in considering this issue,
and that is that it is in the interest of those who would wish
to promote a liberal export regime for Hong Kong after 1997 to make it their business to lobby the Americans long and hard in every conceivable way, both by visiting the United States and
by ensuring that the right people visit. Hong Kong, so that a fund of goodwill and practical firsthand experience and
knowledge of the people concerned may be built up. When the crunch comes the maximum possible favourable influence may thus be exercised on the administrators and politicians in
Washington. To this end it would seem sensible for the UK given its present role, vis-a-vis Hong Kong, to liaise closely with the Hong Kong government office and the other government departments involved in Whitehall, to ensure that such a
programme of cultivating hearts and minds is begun now.
One further consideration is that there might be value in the very big Hong Kong companies establishing themselves in the United States either by new company formations or acquisitions, with a view to increasing their leverage in
Washington now and after 1997.
POLICY IN CONFIDENCE