(v)
POLICY IN CONFIDENCE
the extent to which other South East Asian countries had come to be dependent upon Hong Kong for their own economic well being.
The Uni
Etes' View of 1997
The most recent view of the United States' administration is that the licensing regime to be applied to Hong Kong after
1997 is a "political concern quite distinct from concerns
about the effectiveness or otherwise of Hong Kong's export
licensing regime". It is far from clear just what this
political concerns amounts to, but it seems to embrace uncertainty about China's intentions, the practical consequences of 1997 and the difficulties envisaged of making concessions now and having to withdraw them in the light of
political development.
To the impartial it might seem that the United States had
never adopted a rational political posture towards the Soviet
bloc, or any of its constituent parts, and that that irrationality was compounded in the case of China by an
emotional hang-up which made the United States more likely to
take a liberal view of trade with China than with other parts
of the Soviet bloc, provided it did nothing (as it did do manifestly at Tiananmen Square) to upset the liberal American conscience. The game of second guessing the attitude of the
United States to China in 1997 is one that should fill all but
the most intrepid observer of the American body politic with
the upmost caution and concern. At one extreme China might no
longer be a COCOM proscribed country; at the other it could be
the only one left! Given the age of the Chinese leadership it is possible that the issue will become clear in the next year
or two.
Whose
view?
The Position of the Soviet Union in 1997
Quite frankly it would be difficult to think of a worse time since 1930 to seek to look forward to developments in the Soviet Union. It is conceivable that after the present convulsions the Soviet Union may emerge stronger politically, still incredibly weak economically and possibly no longer deemed to be any more of a threat than any other large and
POLICY IN CONFIDENCE