POLICY IN CONFIDENCE
DRAFT
THE POSITION OF HONG KONG AFTER 1997
Background
In 1997 Hong Kong becomes a semi-autonomous region within the
People's Republic of China. This could have very significant
implications for the extent to which Western countries are
prepared to continue to supply high technology goods to Hong
Kong. On the basis of the present provisions, the application
to Hong Kong of COCOM export controls could effectively
destroy its financial, entrepreneurial and manufacturing
capabilities, and might very well in so doing make fears of
its full incorporation into the People's Republic of China a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Issues
The key issue that will determine just what regime is applied to Hong Kong will be (quite wrongly) the political view of the
People's Republic of China taken in 1997 by the USA. A subsidiary point will be the extent to which the Soviet Union
is still regarded as a strategic threat to the West, and the
extent to which the Chinese government is seen to be in a
frame of mind that would cause worries about diversion of high
technology goods to the Soviet Union through China.
On the other side of the equation and in theory, but
regrettably not in practice, carrying far more weight, would
be issues such as:
(i)
Kong;
the current state of high technology trade in Hong
(ii) the extent to which Hong Kong actually had some ability to keep goods within its confines;
(iii) the extent to which China was involved in
proliferation trade;
(iv) the extent to which countries other than China and
the Soviet Union were still "proscribed destinations";
POLICY IN CONFIDENCE