CONFIDENTIAL
The Legislative Council
4.
The Legco dimension and the new political climate there is a key
new factor. Legco has a crucial role to play because the Governor has said that he will eventually (next February probably) put his proposals to the Council and they will then have to vote on them. Legco's divisions mirror those in the community, with the CRC representing the conservative, business view (Allen Lee has already said they will oppose the proposals in their present form) and the UDHK and most of the other liberals representing the tough approach to China and advocating no turning back. A recent poll in the Hong Kong
Standard (October 25) suggests that the supporters of the package
would number 23 and the opponents and waverers 18. But it is early
days. The Chinese have already started working on individual Legco members and threatening reprisals if they vote in favour.
5.
We shall have to be careful, if we do begin to negotiate on the
package, that we do not make concessions which lose the liberals
without winning over the conservatives. It will be a very close run
thing in Legco. A defeat at the hands of non-elected members would be
difficult to handle. (The calls for a referendum would be certain to
revive). A very small majority would not be easy either.