Longer Term
CONFIDENTIAL
If proposals are passed as they are, would expect the Chinese to commit themselves to dismantle legislative arrangements in 1997. Quite likely they will say that those who participate in 1995 elections cannot participate in post-97 political life. Probably no agreement on airport (we will build what we can but maintain prudent reserves). Withholding agreement on franchises and land sales probably the most serious long term economic threat.
If proposals are modified (in practice the Election Committee and functional constituencies) reaction might be slightly milder.
II.
HMOCS
Must
Has dragged on for far too long. HMG has clear moral responsibility to provide equitable arrangements for HMOCS officers when Secretary of State's protection withdrawn. reach agreement on principles now, so FCO/ODA team can visit Hong Kong in early December for talks with HMOCS Association. Delay will create unrest in civil service, more militant attitude from Association (AGM in December).
Guideline should be arrangements on traditional lines : equitable level of compensation and sterling safeguards to ensure retention of HMOCS officers up to 1997.
(On compensation) Recommend option which takes
traditional factors into account. It would be phased over 5-6
years. £120,000 cap will be considered artificially low, but can be discussed with HMOCS Association.
(On safeguards) FCO have suggested 16:1 trigger.
Will
opdk.18.11.FUTURE.kr
CONFIDENTIAL