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13. PRESSURE ON THE BRITISH AND HONG KONG GOVERNMENTS, AND ON PUBLIC OPINION IN HONG KONG WILL INTENSIFY IN THE RUN UP TO DISCUSSION OF THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS IN LEGCO. IF THE PROPOSALS ARE THEN ENACTED IN OR CLOSE TO THEIR PRESENT FORM WE MUST EXPECT AN UNREMITTING CAMPAIGN OVER THE FOLLOWING TWO YEARS TO ERODE PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE HOLDING OF LEGCO ELECTIONS ON A BASIS NOT APPROVED BY CHINA. THIS IS LIKELY TO INCLUDE ATTEMPTS TO INTIMIDATE THOSE WHO MIGHT BE THINKING OF STANDING AS CANDIDATES AS WELL AS THE ELECTORATE AT LARGE, PERHAPS EMPLOYING THE THEME THAT ANYONE ACTIVELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELECTIONS COULD NOT HOPE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICAL LIFE OF THE FUTURE SAR SINCE THEY WOULD BE LAKING PART IN AN ELECTION WHICH HAD BEEN DECLARED
INCOMPATIBLE WITH THE BASIC LAW.
THEY WILL THEREFORE BE
14. DESPITE ALL THIS THERE MUST BE AN ELEMENT OF BLUFF AND BLUSTER IN THE VARIOUS CHINESE THREATS. THEY KNOW THAT CONFRONTATION CARRIES SERIOUS RISKS FOR THEM AS WELL AS FOR US, AND FOR THEIR TAIWAN POLICY AS WELL AS FOR THEIR HOPES OF TAKING OVER A PROSPEROUS HONG KONG IN GOOD WORKING ORDER. WATCHING FOR SOME POSSIBILITY OF COMPROMISE. THOUGHT IN MIND THAT I TENTATIVELY SUGGESTED CONSIDER WHETHER THERE MIGHT BE WAYS IN WHICH, WITHOUT/WITHOUT LOSING THEIR ESSENTIAL CHARACTER, THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS FOR THE 1995 ELECTIONS COULD BE MODIFIED. I HAD IN MIND SOME REPACKAGING OF THE PROPOSALS NOT/NOT A SUBSTANTIAL WATERING DOWN.
15.
IT WAS WITH THAT
THAT WE MIGHT WANT TO
CAN SEE WHY THE GOVERNOR IS NOT ATTRACTED BY THIS SUGGESTION. HE MAY BE RIGHT IN SAYING THAT THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF BRINGING THE CHINESE TO ACCEPT, OR EVEN TO ACQUIESCE IN PROPOSALS WHICH WOULD WIN MAJORITY SUPPORT IN HONG KONG. BUT GOING IT ALONE CARRIES GRAVE RISKS. WE SHOULD NOT FORGET DENG XIAOPING'S WARNING DURING THE JOINT DECLARATION NEGOTIATIONS THAT IF THERE WAS
* CHAOS' IN HONG KONG THE CHINESE MIGHT BE OBLIGED TO INTERVENE
EARLIER.
MCLAREN
YYYY
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