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176676 MDADAN 6055
WITH THE JD AND THE BL AND VIOLATE SPECIFIC UNDERSTANDINGS BETWEEN THE BRITISH AND CHINESE GOVERNMENTS.
(B) WARNINGS THAT IF THE GOVERNOR PERSISTS, THE CHINESE WILL START AGAIN FROM SCRATCH IN 1997, AND RECONSTITUTE THE EXECUTIVE, LEGISLATIVE AND JUDICIAL BODIES IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE BASIC LAW.
MORE GENERALISED THREATS ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF CHOOSING THE PATH OF CONFRONTATION.
(C)
6.
IN ADDITION TO PURSUING A MEDIA CAMPAIGN, THE CHINESE WILL SEEK TO INFLUENCE GROUPS AND INDIVIDUALS BY A COMBINATION OF THREATS AND INDUCEMENTS. IN PARTICULAR THEY WILL PUT AS MUCH PRESSURE AS POSSIBLE ON LEGCO MEMBERS NOT TO SUPPORT THE PROPOSALS, AND WILL SEEK TO PERSUADE THEIR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL CONTACTS THAT CONFRONTATION WITH CHINA IS BAD FOR BUSINESS. THEY MAY ALSO TRY TO WORK ON SELECTED CIVIL SERVANTS, WITH THE AIM OF SPREADING CONCERN IN THE CIVIL SERVICE.
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FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE I AGREE THAT IT WOULD BE RIGHT FOR MR GALSWORTHY TO ACT AS THE GOVERNOR PROPOSES IN PARA 7 OF HONG KONG TUR. BUT WE SHOULD BE UNDER NO ILLUSIONS THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY MOVEMENT ON THE PART OF THE CHINESE. THEY WILL REST ON THE STATEMENTS BY LU PING AND QIAN QICHEN DURING THE GOVERNOR'S VISIT.
8.
UNDER (II) THE CHINESE WILL LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL WAYS OF BRINGING PRESSURE TO BEAR WHICH DO NOT HARM THEIR OWN INTERESTS. I NOTE THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY CALLED OFF, OR SCALED DOWN, SOME VISITS WHICH WERE DUE TO TAKE PLACE SHORTLY (HONG KONG TELNO 2571). THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE: FOR EXAMPLE, PROVINCIAL GOVERNORS ARE LIKELY TO BE TOLD NOT TO CALL ON THE GOVERNOR WHEN VISITING HONG KONG. THEY WILL PERMIT NO PROGRESS TO BE MADE IN THE JLG AND, OF COURSE, IN THE AIRPORT COMMITTEE. THEY COULD MAKE DIFFICULTIES ABOUT LAND GRANTS, EVEN WHERE THEY ARE NOT AIRPORT RELATED, THOUGH I WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT INITIALLY. THEY COULD ALSO CAUSE PROBLEMS OVER CONTRACTS AND FRANCHISES. IN GENERAL THEY WOULD WANT TO BRING IT HOME TO US THAT THEY HAVE THE POWER, IF THEY CHOOSE TO EXERCISE IT, TO MAKE THE ADMINISTRATION OF HONG KONG EXTREMELY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FOUR AND A HALF YEARS.
9.
LIAISON BETWEEN THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT AND THE GUANGDONG AUTHORITIES MIGHT BECOME MORE STICKY. BUT THE CHINESE WILL NOT WANT TO ENDANGER THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HONG KONG AND THE
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