HONG KONG
CONFIDENTIAL
China has reacted with open hostility to Chris Patten's proposals.
They made no effort to engage in serious discussion of them in Peking last week. Their agreement to continue discussion looks purely nominal.
They are giving priority to a public campaign to frighten Hong Kong opinion and so undercut support for Chris Patten.
The flurry over Ministerial exchanges on the electoral arrangements largely a red herring. We can make a strong case that there were no "secret deals".
- The crucial issue will be how support for Chris Patten holds up in Hong Kong (particularly LegCo and the business community) under Chinese propaganda onslaught. Expecting an assessment from Chris Patten on that today.
The row with China is likely to spread beyond the political issues to:
The Airport. Chris Patten will be sending us his thoughts on how to play the late November deadline and how far Hong Kong can go it alone;
The JLG, which the Chinese are likely to put back into the freezer.
But signs are that cooperation on trade and economic matters will continue.
Chinese tactics in longer term not yet clear. They are probably waiting to see how we react.
Good opportunity to take stock with the Governor when he is here (16-20 November). Worth having a collective discussion of the way ahead in OPD (K).
CONFIDENTIAL
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