CONFIDENTIAL
027267
MDHOAN 3858
CONTINUE A NORMAL RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA, BOTH OVER HONG KONG AND MORE GENERALLY. THE VISIT HERE BY VICE PREMIER ZHU RONGJI (16-18 NOVEMBER) WILL BE HELPFUL IN THAT. IT WILL GIVE US THE CHANCE TO SHOW ROBUST SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS, AND URGE THE CHINESE TO PUT FORWARD COUNTER PROPOSALS RATHER THAN JUST CRITICISE. BUT IN PRACTICE THEY SEEM VERY UNLIKELY TO DO So.
AT OPD (K) ON 15 SEPTEMBER, WE IDENTIFIED ONE OR TWO MINOR CONCESSIONS WHICH THE GOVERNOR COULD MAKE (PARTICULARLY ON THE ELECTION COMMITTEE) DURING NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE CHINESE.
AS
PART OF SUSTAINING SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS IN THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL, THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS IN WHICH WE WOULD NEED TO CONSIDER WHETHER TO MAKE CHANGES OF THAT KIND:
(I) IF A GROUND SWELL OF SUPPORT DEVELOPED WITHIN HONG KONG FOR A SPECIFIC CHANGE WHICH WE COULD ACCEPT
(II) IF A WIDESPREAD VIEW DEVELOPED IN HONG KONG THAT SOME ADJUSTMENT SHOULD BE OFFERED IN ORDER TO DEPRIVE THE CHINESE OF THE ARGUMENT THAT THE PROPOSALS HAD BEEN PUT FORWARD ON A TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT BASIS.
ANY SUCH CHANGE WOULD NEED TO MEET THE GOVERNOR'S CRITERIA THAT THE ELECTORAL ARRANGEMENTS SHOULD BE OPEN, FAIR AND COMMAND WIDESPREAD SUPPORT IN HONG KONG (EVEN LU PING HAS PUBLICLY ACCEPTED THESE CRITERIA). IT WOULD BE PREMATURE TO MAKE ANY CHANGE NOW. THE TIMING WOULD NEED TO BE JUDGED IN THE LIGHT OF
THE EVOLUTION OF OPINION IN HONG KONG. THE GOVERNOR'S PRESENT
PLAN IS TO PUT LEGISLATION TO THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL IN FEBRUARY:
ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE THE SUMMER BEFORE THE BILL COMPLETES ALL ITS STAGES. THE VOTE IS LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE: AND THERE WILL BE AN UNCOMFORTABLY LONG TIME FOR CHINESE
STRONG-ARM TACTICS TO HAVE AN EFFECT.
THE CHANCES OF REACHING AN AGREED SET OF ARRANGEMENTS WITH THE CHINESE FOR THE 1995 ELECTIONS, ON A BASIS ACCEPTABLE TO HONG KONG OPINION, IS EXTREMELY REMOTE. THE CHINESE THEMSELVES DO NOT SEEM TO EXPECT IT. BUT IF WE JUDGED THAT TO SUSTAIN SUPPORT IN HONG KONG IT WAS NECESSARY TO MAKE SOME CHANGE TO THE PROPOSALS, THERE WOULD BE ADVANTAGE IN EXPLAINING IT TO THE CHINESE, IN A WAY WHICH GAVE THEM THE OPTION OF ENTERING A SERIOUS NEGOTIATION WITH US. IT WOULD ALSO DEPRIVE THEM OF THE ARGUMENT THAT THE PROPOSALS WERE A FAIT ACCOMPLI - AND MIGHT LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF THEIR EVENTUAL REACTION. MEANWHILE, WE HAVE PUT THE BALL IN THE CHINESE COURT BY ASKING THEM THROUGH THE JLG HOW THEY PROPOSE THAT DISCUSSIONS BE TAKEN FORWARD.
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CONFIDENTIAL