SoStoPM.SA.bern
CONFIDENTIAL
In carrying out this instruction, Chinese officials are
concentrating in the short term on undermining support in
Hong Kong for the Governor's proposals, in particular through:
- a sustained campaign of intimidation against members of the
Legislative Council (LegCo), with the aim of denying the
Governor a majority when he puts his proposals to LegCo early
next year.
We have already seen evidence of crude threats
involving members' business interests in China, and their
hopes for preferment in Hong Kong post-1997;
a similar effort to frighten members of the business
community. We have already heard the first jitters from that
quarter;
-
a continuing refusal to agree financing arrangements for
the new airport;
a freeze on progress in the Joint Liaison Group.
In the longer term, Chinese tactics will depend on whether
LegCo are prepared to enact the Governor's proposals.
If they do so largely unamended, I would expect the Chinese to sustain
and possibly intensify their campaign, with the aim of disrupting the LegCo elections in 1995. They might well
threaten that anyone who became a member of the 1995 LegCo
would be excluded from participation in public life after
Possibly 1997. Other actions they could take include an increase in
the flow of illegal immigrants into Hong Kong, and more
aggressive anti-smuggling patrolling around Hong Kong waters.
Agreement on the airport would be most unlikely.
But the Chinese also need to bear in mind their own
significant economic interests in Hong Kong, and will want to
try to drive a wedge between the Hong Kong Government and the people of Hong Kong. I therefore doubt that they will disrupt
trade or financial links with Southern China, or turn to the
more extreme forms of pressure, such as interference with supplies across the border. They also seem ready so far to
CONFIDENTIAL