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FM PEKING
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 1204
INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG, UKREP JLG HONG KONG
PERSONAL FOR COX, HKD
PERS
HONG KONG PERSONAL, FOR GOVERNOR
SONAL BO
97.
HONG KONG TELNO 2183 AND FCO TELNOS 1285 AND 1286: CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS: HANDLING THE CHINESE
1.
THE CHANCES OF SECURING AN ENTHUSIASTIC CHINESE ENDORSEMENT OF THE PACKAGE OUTLINED IN HONG KONG TELNO 2183 ARE SLIM. ANY EXCHANGES BEFORE THE GOVERNOR'S SPEECH ON 7 OCTOBER ARE LIKELY TO BE A TEST OF WILLS, RATHER THAN GENUINE CONSULTATION, ALTHOUGH THE CHINESE WILL FISH FOR AS MUCH INFORMATION AS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SPEECH IS DELIVERED. WE NEED TO KEEP THEM GUESSING ABOUT THE DETAILED CONTENTS OF THE PACKAGE WHILE OUTLINING IN GENERAL TERMS ITS CONTENTS AT THE MEETING OF FOREIGN MINISTERS IN NEW YORK ON 25 SEPTEMBER.
2.
THE OBJECTIVE OF PUSHING GENUINE DEMOCRACY AS FAR AS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE BASIC LAW WILL BE A MAIN FOCUS OF CHINESE OBJECTIONS. IT WILL SIGNIFY TO THEM A REDUCTION OF THE CONTROL WHICH THEY MIGHT HAVE SOUGHT TO EXERCISE AFTER 1997 AND THEY WILL ASSUME ONE OF OUR OBJECTIVES IS TO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY PRO-CHINA CANDIDATES BEING RETURNED IN THE 1995 ELECTIONS. EVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE FUNCTIONAL CONSTITUENCIES' ELECTORATES WILL BE SEEN IN THIS LIGHT. ONE WAY TO DILUTE THIS IMPRESSION AND THEREFORE HELP MINIMISE KNEEJERK REACTIONS MIGHT BE TO DEMONSTRATE THAT IN PRACTICE THE NEW SYSTEM WOULD NOT PREJUDICE THE CHANCES OF PRO-CHINA CANDIDATES AND MIGHT EVEN ENHANCE THEM COMPARED WITH THE OUTCOME IN 1991. WE WONDER WHETHER ANY OF THE ANALYSES OF VOTING PATTERNS MADE BY CAB AFTER THE LAST ELECTIONS MIGHT BE USED IN THIS WAY TO REASSURE THE CHINESE THAT VOICES SYMPATHETIC TO THEIR STAND POINT WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY ABSENT FROM THE 1995 LEGCO?
3=
ON TIMING AND TACTICS, WE AGREE WITH FCO TELNO 1285 THAT WE SHOULD NOT TRY TO TALK IN GREATER DETAIL WITH THE CHINESE OR ELABORATE ON OUR POSITION OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. AS RECOGNISED
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