CONFIDENTIAL
3. The new Governor's high profile contrasts with the relatively low public profile of the new ExCo. This is perhaps inevitable, given that ExCo is now non-political, and has lost some of its most outspoken members. But individual ExCo members are conspicuously less vocal than their predecessors in their support for the Government; and when they do speak out they make less impact. I think this is a weakness in the new system and that the lack of powerful ExCo voices will be increasingly felt in the critical months to come.
4.
Perhaps the most dramatic political change in the past five months is the almost complete reversal of roles of the UDHK and CRC. Under Lord Wilson, CRC was seen by most people here as the nearest thing to the "government party", although it was obvious that they were finding it difficult to perform that role, given the political ambitions of CRC leaders. By the same token, UDHK was identified as "the opposition", and Martin Lee as the "leader of the opposition".
5.
Since the departure of Allen Lee from ExCo, CRC has increasingly assumed the mantle of opposition. I believe it is simplistic to regard CRC as "pro-China": they have chosen to oppose HKG now because they believe that HKG policies are contrary to the interests of the part of society which they represent, and have therefore sought to reinsure themselves with China. They have no great love of Peking. They are now the focus of opposition to the Governor's ideas on political development and claim to represent a reasonable chunk of Hong Kong opinion in this. What is less clear is whether their membership will be equally obstructive in other areas of HKG policy; the recent vote on the airport site contract is not an encouraging omen.
6.
By contrast, it is the UDHK leadership, notably Martin Lee, who is quickest to speak up in support of the Governor on political development matters (eg over the interpretation of the 1990 exchange between Mr Hurd and Qian Qichen) and whose support on other issues (eg the airport) is most reliable. The key question is this: will the burden of being the Government's principal supporters cause the same stresses and strains within the UDHK as it did when the CRC was closely identified with the Government?
7. Another characteristic of the current scene, the increasingly sharp polarisation of political views, and the corresponding difficulty of achieving consensus. It is no longer possible for individual LegCo members to sit on the fence (except by conveniently arranging to be absent for crucial LegCo votes). They have to make clear cut choices. This is creating new pressures on LegCo members, both in relation to their supporters and constituents and in terms of the effect that their votes could have on their long term political future. For the choice boils down to being for or against the Governor and thus for or against China and they do not like to have to choose.
CONFIDENTIAL