CONFIDENTIAL
145752
MDHIAN 5782
AND MORE ANTAGONISTIC
A
SINCE MY LAST VISIT. THIS TIME, I MADE A POINT OF SEEING EACH OF THE MAIN, GROUPS SEPARATELY. THIS WAS A USEFUL EXERCISE. BUT I WAS PARTICULARLY STRUCK BY THE CHANGE IN ALLEN LEE'S APPROACH SINCE HE STEPPED DOWN AS SENIOR MEMBER OF LEGCO, AND ENTERED THE TRENCHES AS A PARTY POLITICIAN. HE AND HIS GROUP SEE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH T HE UNITED DEMOCRATS AS IRRECONCILABLE AND LAUGH OUT OF COURT ANY SUGGESTION THAT LIBERALS COULD BE BROUGHT ONTO EXCO 9ALLEN LEE DESCRIBED THEM AS ''FUNDAMENTALISTS'). AT THE SAME TIME, ALLEN LEE'S GROUP ARE ACUTELY CONSCIOUS THAT IF THEY WANT TO STAY IN POLITICS THEY WILL HAVE TO CONTEST THE 1995 ELECTIONS, AND THAT UNQUESTIONING SUPPORT OF GOVERNMENT POLICY IN LEGCO MAY NOT BE A GOOD PLATFORM. HENCE THE WORRYING SIGNS THAT ALLEN LEE WANTS TO PLAY POLITICS ON THE BUDGET BY OPPOSING SOME OF THE UNPOPULAR REVENUE-RAISING MEASURES.
5. THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS WIDER IMPLICATIONS. THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT HAS SO FAR DEPENDED ON ALLEN LEE'S GROUP AND THE APPOINTED MEMBERS TO GET THE BUSINESS DONE IN LEGCO. AND DESPITE ALL THE FROTH, BUSINESS IS GETTING DONE. BUT BUILDING COALITIONS TO SUPPORT THE LESS POPULAR BITS OF GOVERNMENT BUSINESS SUCH AS BUDGETS IN LIKELY TO BECOME HARDER.
6. ALL THIS IS RELEVANT TO THE ISSUE OF WHEN TO GO BACK TO THE CHINESE ON THE QUESTION OF MORE DIRECTLY-ELECTED SEATS IN 1995, AND WHETHER TO PUSH THROUGH CHANGES IN THE FACE OF CHINESE OPPOSITION. I FOUND A VERY WIDESPREAD FEELING THAT THE SOONER WE GET ON WITH THIS THE BETTER, SO THAT THE GOVERNMENT AND POLITICIANS CAN HAVE CERTAINTY ON WHICH TO PLAN FOR THE 1995 ELECTIONS. THERE WERE PREDICTABLE SUSPICIONS FROM MARTIN LEE THAT WE WOULD RENAGE ON OUR UNDERTAKING TO RAISE THIS WITH THE CHINESE (I PUT HIM RIGHT). APART FROM THE UNITED DEMOCRATS, THERE WAS A WIDESPREAD FEELING THAT WE WOULD NOT GET ANYTHING OUT OF THE CHINESE ON THIS SUBJECT, THAT WE SHOULD BE CAREFUL NOT TO ENCOURAGE ANY WISHFUL THINKING TO THE CONTRARY, AND THAT HAVING RECEIVED THE EXPECTED CHINESE ANSWER, WE SHOULD PUT CONTINUITY ABOVE MINOR EXTENSIONS OF DEMOCRACY AND STICK TO THE NUMBERS LAID DOWN IN THE BASIC LAW.
7. AS YOU WOULD EXPECT, THIS LINE OF THOUGHT WAS STRONGLY ENDORSED BY THE BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL PEOPLE I MET, WHO SAY THAT THIS IS NOT AN ISSUE WHICH CONCERNS MOST PEOPLE IN HONG KONG. ALL
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE RIGHT TIME FOR MAKING DECISIONS WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS YEAR (THAT FITS WITH THE HONG KONG
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