CONFIDENTIAL
When
8. The outcome will of course have been an even greater disappointment to Martin Lee and his supporters, who have seen the tide running aganist them on this issue for some weeks, I discussed the prospects with him on 13 January, Martin Lee seemed genuinely worried that the "no change" option of Tam Yiu chung might prevail, and had clearly lost hope of anything other than a conservative victory. After the vote, he conceded defeat with good grace, making no secret of his reservations about the Arculli model, but pledging to accept and work with the system for the time being. He is no doubt pinning his hopes on the review in July.
9. I would be surprised if we have heard the last of this issue. The closeness of the result and the proximity of the review should ensure that it is not forgotten. I also doubt whether the new system will do much to tackle the problem of backlog of work: the causes of that are complex and run much deeper. The debate is in any case not just about how to organise Legco bus .ess more efficiently - it is also about power and influence in LegCo, and - crucially about the relationship between Legco and ExCo. The
18 January has done nothing to make the way ahead on those issues any clearer.
vote on
10. What is clear, however, from the result of the vote is the political ascendancy of the CRC and the increasing frustration of the liberals who, having won the "war" of the September 1991 elections, are in the process of losing the "peace". I shall be examining this and related themes in a separate letter on the political situation in Hong Kong.
Youas
ever,
CONFIDENTIAL
Alan
A R Paul