CONFIDENTIAL
Option C:
HMG to under-write pensions at discounted rate of HK$24 :
POTENTIAL ANNUAL COST:
If HK dollar at or above this rate: Nil
Option D:
If HK dollar became worthless (or if SARG defaulted):
in 1998: £ 7.0 m
in 2011: £ 10.4 m
HMG to under-write pensions at discounted rate of HK$30:
POTENTIAL ANNUAL COST:
If HK dollar at or above this rate: Nil
If HK dollar became worthless (or if SARG defaulted):
in 1998: £ 5.57 m in 2011: £ 8.33 m
Option E:
HMG to under-write pensions at exchange rate prevailing on date of officer's retirement
Option F:
POTENTIAL ANNUAL COST:
[Treasury/GAD to suggest some basis for estimating
potential costs? Likely to be much higher than fixed trigger point, given numbers of officers who retired when Hong Kong dollar's value against sterling was higher than now?]
HMG to under-write only non-commuted element of pensions
POTENTIAL ANNUAL COST:
Would depend on number of officers opting for commutation of part-pension, whether they were on new or old pensions schemes (ie 25% or 50% commutatable) and on variables as Options A to E.
-Maxima would approach those at Options A to E
(ie if very few officers retiring after
announcement of the safeguard arrangements opt for commutation)
-Minima would be rather more than 50% of those
at Options A to E (ie if almost all officers opt
for the new pensions scheme and then for commutation)
CONFIDENTIAL
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