Estimates of a one-year Roll forward Reserve Fund for the period 1992-93 to 2001-02
Annex
D
Forecasted pension expend.
Interest on Reserve Fund
Top Ups
Estimate of (a)
(b)
(c)
(a)
at 91/92
salary
Inflat. rate
Pension
at
factor
Expenditure
68%
0%
Year
(HK$M)
(HK$M)
(HK$M) (HK$M)
10% (HK$M)
(b) with interest al
68
8%
10% (UKSM) (JKSM) (HK$M)
(c)
1992-93
2,975
11.54
1.1154
3,318
0
0
0
3,318
3,318
3,318
1993-94
3,354
8.7
1.2124
4.066
199
265
332
549
483
416
1994-95
3,861
8.7
1.3179
5,088
244
325
407
778
697
615
1995-96
3,968
8.7
1.4326
5,685
305
407
509
292
190
88
1996-97
4.239
8.7
1.5572
6.601
341
455
569
575
461
347
1997-98
4,508
8. 7
1.6927
7.631
396
528
660
634
502
370
1998-99
4.590
7.7
1.8230
8.368
458
610
763
279
127
(26) *
1999-00
5,019
7.7
1.9634
9,854
502
669
837
984
817
649
2000 01
5,223
7.7
2.1146
11,045
591
788
905
600
403
206
?
2001-02
5,352
7.7
2.2774
12,189
663
884
1,105
481
260
39
Assumptions :
The pension expenditure for 92/93 is arrived at taking into account the inflation rate of 11.54% for 91/92. Inflation rate for 92/93 to 96/97 is assumed al 8.7% p.a. and from 97/98 onwards is assumed at 7.7%p.a.
* The surplus is assumed to be withdrawn