amounts

both principal and consolidated Moratorium Interest. Even in markets which have rescheduled both Short and Medium Term debt the average level of Short Term amounts involved is 228%. There is a further factor to bear in mind. This is simply that Short Term business turns over quickly. Thus, any £100 of Short Term business stays on our books for a much shorter period than M/LT which means that the proportion of total Short Term business underwritten which is likely to be caught by a rescheduling is much less than for M/LT.

6.2 We have looked at short term claims experience on markets which run into foreign exchange shortages affecting mainly medium

medium term debt. Experience to date shows that the incidence of medium term debt service problems has very little adverse impact on the claims position for short term business. In respect of markets which have rescheduled medium term debt only, short term claims over the last five years amount to approximately £36m with recoveries of £22m. This represents a very small amount compared to the level of M/LT debt rescheduled (see Annex B).

6.3 We have also looked at the incidence of short term claims caused by upheaval etc risks which amount, over the last five years, to only £490,000 spread across four markets (Argentina, Ecuador, Nigeria and Somalia). The very low level of claims would fall well under Our proposed weighting for these risks (see Annex C).

Exposure

7

Table 1 below gives further information on the level of exposure to some of the risks to which the proposed weighting system would be applied. As I have already pointed out our database has not, to date, been geared to store details of such exposure in a sufficiently disaggregated way. Consequently, the information given is not, perhaps, as clear as we would have wished. However, it does provide sufficient information on which to form a judgement on the weighting of risks accordance with our proposal;

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