RESTRICTED
FM HONG KONG
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 499
OF 20052OZ FEBRUARY 92
AND TO IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
RESTRICTED
la
стр HKA C20/14
23
132551
MDHIAN 3768
INFO PRIORITY UKMIS GENEVA, HANOI
Weten
File
HONG KONG TELNOS 482-3: VIETNAMESE MIGRANTS: QUAYLE
1. THIS IS NOW GIVING US A SERIOUS PROBLEM. UNHCR YESTERDAY CHECKED IN THE CAMPS HOW MANY OF THE 338 VOLUNTEERS SCHEDULED FOR TRANSFER TO LO WU ON 21 FEBRUARY WERE READY TO LEAVE. 154 (45 PERCENT) INDICATED THEY WOULD NO LONGER STAY IN THE VOLUNTARY SCHEME. UNHCR HAVE ANALYSED THE REASONS FOR THIS ALARMING WITHDRAWAL RATE. ASIDE FORM A HANDFUL OF WITHDRAWALS FOR PERSONAL REASONS (PREGNANCY, LETTERS FROM HOME) THE TWO KEY FACTORS WERE FEAR OF SECURITY IN THE DEPARTURE CENTRES FOLLOWING THE SHEK KONG FIRE, AND THE QUAYLE STATEMENT. THE COMMENT TO UNHCR IN WHITEHEAD WAS 'AMERICA WILL SAVE US NOW'.
2. UNHCR ESTIMATE THAT ONE THIRD OF WITHDRAWALS WERE PROMPTED BY SECURITY WORRIES (THESE WILL FADE OVER TIME), TWO THIRDS BY QUAYLE. OUR WORRY IS THAT THE QUAYLE EFFECT WILL NOT/NOT FADE UNLESS THE US DOES SOMETHING CLEAR TO COUNTER IT. IN OUR EXPERIENCE WITHDRAWALS BASED ON RUMOURS OF EXTERNAL EVENTS OF POLICY CHANGES GATHER MOMENTUM AS WORD SPREADS AND THE MESSAGE GETS DISTORTED. UNHCR ARE ALREADY TALKING ABOUT HAVING TO CANCEL FLIGHTS AND WE ARE DISCOURAGING THEM FROM ANY SUCH PREMATURE ACTION. BUT THIS RE-UNDERLINES THE NEED FOR VERY EARLY ACTION BY THE AMERICANS AS PROPOSED IN OUR FIRST TUR.
WILSON
YYYY
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