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MDHIAN 440
5. I RECOGNISE THAT THIS MAY MEAN THAT WE DO NOT/NOT SECURE ORP II FOR THE TIME BEING. IF SO, THERE WOULD BE A RISK THAT EITHER THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF THE ORP TO ARRIVALS FROM VIETNAM WOULD WEAKEN OR THAT VOLUNTARY REPATRIATION WOULD REDUCE. BUT, EVEN IF NEW ARRIVALS DO BEGIN TO COME AT THE START OF THE USUAL SAILING SEASON (END-MARCH/APRIL), WE SHOULD, UNLESS THE NUMBERS ARE UNMANAGEABLE, BE ABLE TO TURN ROUND THOSE SCREENED OUT QUICKLY UNDER ORP I. IF WE WERE TO SEE LARGE NUMBERS OF ARRIVALS AND/OR THE NUMBER OF VOLUNTEERS BEGAN TO DROP, THEN THE CASE WOULD BE STRENGTHENED FOR PUSHING THE VIETNAMESE TO BEGIN ORP II AND ALSO, IF THEE WAS NO ALTERNATIVE, FOR LOOKING AGAIN AT THE ARGUMENTS FOR GIVING FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE VIETNAMESE IN RETURN FOR AN EFFECTIVE ORP II. IT IS WORTH BEARING IN MIND HOWEVER THAT, NUMBERS SHOULD RISE SHARPLY DURING THE YEAR, WE WOULD HAVE OUR WORK CUT OUR SCREENING AND RETURNING NEW ARRIVALS CORP I) WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL BURDENS UNDER ORP II.
6. IN SUM I DO NOT THINK IT WOULD BE RIGHT, POLITICALLY FEASIBLE, OR INDEED TACTICALLY WISE, TO GIVE IN TO VIETNAMESE BLACKMAIL AT THIS STAGE. WE BELIEVE TOO THAT WE CAN COPE UNDER EXISTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH OR SO AT LEAST.
IF
7. I SHOULD WELCOME AN EARLY OPPORTUNITY TO GO OVER ALL THIS WITH HMA HANOI AND TO DISCUSS WITH HIM HOW BEST TO PLAY THE TACTICS OF GETTING ORP II OFF THE GROUND. IF YOU AGREE, I WOULD FIND IT VERY USEFUL IF HE COULD MANAGE TO VISIT HONG KONG BRIEFLY IN THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS.
WILSON
YYYY
ΜΑΙΝ
121
.VIETNAMESE MIGRANTS IN HK
SEAD
LEGAL ADVISERS
PUSD
INFO D
ECD (E)
FINANCE D
FED
DISTRIBUTION
129
PAGE
ECFAD/ODA//HD
PS
PS/MRS CHALKER
PS/LORD CAITHNESS
PS/MR LENNOX-BOYD
PS/PUS
SIR J COLES
MR AINSCOW
2
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