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FM HANOI
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 167
OF 130145Z MARCH 92
INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG, UKMIS GENEVA INFO PRIORITY WASHINGTON, UKREP BRUSSELS
MYTELNO 166
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VIETNAMESE MIGRANTS: DEPARTURES
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1 IN RECENT VISITS TO MAJOR BOAT PEOPLE PROVINCES AND IN CONTACTS HERE IN HANOI WITH THE MINISTRIES OF LABOUR AND INTERIOR AND UNHCR (ALSO IN HO CHI MINH CITY), I TRIED TO FORM AN ASSESSMENT OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF HONG KONG FACING A MAJOR WAVE OF ARRIVALS FROM VIETNAM THIS YEAR. THE CRUCIAL SEASON ''THE
SAILING SEASON IS JUST BEGINNING AND WILL LAST UNTIL THE SUMMER.
2. THE GENERAL VIEW IN THE PROVINCES AND AMONGST THE MINISTRY
HERE IS THAT WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE AN EXODUS THIS YEAR ON THE SAME SCALE AS 1991. ALL THOSE I HAVE SPOKEN TO ON THE VIETNAMESE SIDE HAVE STRESSED THE AMOUNT OF PROPAGANDA WORK UNDERTAKEN IN
THE PROVINCES AT VARIOUS LEVELS AND REPEATED LOCAL SCREENINGS
OF THE SEVERAL EXCELLENT FILMS AVAILABLE AND DESIGNED TO DETER DEPARTURES. I HAVE STRESSED THE VITAL NEED TO KEEP UP THIS WORK TO THEM AND UNHCR. IT IS ALSO CLEAR THAT THE REMOVAL OF THE AUTOMATIC UNHCR GRANT OF DOLLARS 360 FOR NEW ARRIVALS HAS REMOVED A MAJOR INCENTIVE. APART FROM QUANG NINH WHICH IS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE SLOWLY IMPROVING ECONOMY OF THE PROVINCE WILL BE A POSITIVE FACTOR, NONE OF MY VIETNAMESE INTERLOCUTERS WILL PROFESS ANY MORE THAN VERY CAREFULY GUARDED OPTIMISM.
IN THE CENTRAL PROVINCES THEY STRESS THAT THE BASIC CONDITIONS OF LIFE, PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL FISHING VILLAGES, ARE SO DIFFICULT THAT PEOPLE COULD WELL STILL LEAVE IN DESPERATION OR EVEN JUST FOR THE PROSPECT OF REGULAR MEALS IN A HONG KONG CAMP
AND THE US DOLLARS 50 RETURNING GRANT (US DOLLARS 50 IS STILL A VERY SIGNIFICANT SUM OF MONEY IN THESE VILLAGES).
2. A NUMBER OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES REFERRED TO THE UNFORTUNATE REMARKS BY VICE PRESIDENT QUAYLE WHICH WERE APPARENTLY BROADCAST
BY VOA TO VIETNAM. PEOPLE IN A NUMBER OF VILLAGES I VISITED WERE
ALSO AWARE OF THESE REMARKS. IT IS FEARED THAT THEY COULD HAVE
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