22-MAK-1991
17:14
DIRECTOR OF ADM.
682 877 J002
P.UD
2
The
figures
than 90% Of
relate
to
the
emigrants Kong
total include all members of the family.
Hong U.S.A. or Australia.
Reasons for Emigration
5
at
number
of
In recent have gone
people years,
and
more Canada,
People have been emigrating from Hong Kong for
Mosc
least up asual reasons, at
economic family reunion and
there 1986-7 period
two
The least 100 years. until the early 1980s, were
In the advancement. significant developments: -
6.
wete
(a) the "honeymoon period" enjoyed after the coming into force of the Sino-British Joint Declaration came to an end. Some Hong Kong people began to doubt whether their lifestyle could be maintained after 1997 when China resumes sovereignty.
(b)
the immigration policies and quotas of the most popular destination countries were changed in: Ways that had the effect of providing More opportunities for Hong Kong people to go.
The best examples of (b) are Canada and 0.5.A. In 1986, Canada reopened the "Independent Selected Worker " category which had been frozen for some years. At the same time, Canada's "global planning level" has risen from 105.000 - 115,000 in 1986 to 165,000 - 175,000 in 1990. From 1 October 1987 Hong Kong's annual quota
for the U.S.A. was raised from 600 to 5,000 as part of
as part of an overall revamp of U.S. immigration policy.
Emigration 1991 and beyond
7.
basis of
Because emigration is a process, it is possible to make forecasts for limited periods ahead by observation Of early stages Of the process. On the information available 11 late-1990, the provisional estimate of emigration for 1991 is 60,000.
8.
There are many unknown factors which make it very hard to predict amigration trends beyond 1990 with a high degree of
accuracy. Assuming that the immigration policies and quotas DE the main destination countries remain broadly the same, the most likely outcome 15 that emigration will be levelling out at about the 60,000 mark.