15 October 1991
David Gowan Esq Cabinet Office 70 Whitehall London SW1A 2AS
CONFIDENTIAL
HKB
341/1.
NOV 99
Foreign & Commonwealth
Office
London SWIA 2AH
Telephone: 071-
EMIG
Dear Dawid,
CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR HONG KONG
1.
Andrew Burns' letter of October to Len Appleyard promised an updated summary of emigration trends as soon as this had been received from Hong Kong. I now enclose a copy of Hong Kong telno 3138 with the summary update.
2. As you will see the provisional estimate for total emigration in 1991 is just over 60,000. This compares with 62,000 in 1990 and bears out the Hong Kong Government's prediction of 18 March 1991, when they provided the last summary of emigration trends considered by GEN 15. Hong Kong estimates that emigration in 1992 is likely to stay at about 60,000, possibly increasing slightly owing to the increasing preference given by destination countries to applicants from Hong Kong.
3. Hong Kong suggests that it is to early to assess the effect of the British Nationality Scheme on emigration, as only a small number of passports have been issued under the Scheme to date. There are two other factors which should be taken into account: first, the lead time for emigration visas can be considerable (in Canada's case up to 3 years), so a visa approved last year, translating into an emigration statistic in 1991, could reflect a decision to emigrate taken in 1988 (or earlier); second, decisions by destination countries to adopt a helpful policy on right of abode for Hong Kong people may in the short term result in an increase in emigration. For example the Hong Kong provisions of the US Immigration Act 1990 were designed, at least in part, to provide a route to emigration if required after 1997, which need not be used immediately, so it gives Hong Kong people the right to defer using their visa until 2003. But because the Act also increased the total number of visas available to Hong Kong, it may result in more "family reunion" applicants (who may have been waiting some years for a visa to join relations in the USA) using their visas in the short term. In short, we agree with Hong Kong that it is to early to assess the affect of the 1990 Nationality Scheme.
POPAKO
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CONFIDENTIAL