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every sign of wanting to stick it out. The Prime Minister will have to give evidence to the court of inquiry when it resumes its hearings in early April. If he is able to weather that and the waves that the affair has created in the Conservative Party, the next critical event will be the publication of the findings of the court of inquiry. Thereafter Schlüter would have to reckon with getting drawn into the impeachment proceedings against Ninn-Hansen which might begin in 1991. But at this stage it looks somewhat unlikely that Schlüter would be able to survive as Prime Minister for that long.
4.
we have already reported, there has been a good deal of speculation about Mr Schlüter stepping down fairly soon. A Conservative member of the Folketing told us last week he thought this would be within two to three months, although others think he could last longer. All are agreed that when the time comes he will do everything to avoid leaving the impression that the Tamil affair is the reason for his departure.
5. Assuming that he goes fairly soon, who will be Schlüter's successor? The Conservative Ministers of Finance (Dyremose) and Justice (Engell) would both like the job. But the long-serving Foreign Minister is a more senior politician and might be reluctant to serve under one of them. He is the other obvious candidate within the present coalition, but there is a question as to whether his political style is sufficiently accommodating for the non-stop task of pulling parliamentary majorities out of the hat. Much will depend on the manner of Schlüter's going and, when the time comes, whether the two-party coalition can quickly agree on a successor among themselves. If they fail to do this and the coalition appears to be in disarray, the outcome is likely to be a round of inter-party negotiations (the so called "Queen's Round" which Philip Astley mentioned in his letter of 12 December to Hilary Synnott). This would give the leader of the Social Democrats, Auken, the chance to try to detach one of the small centre parties (probably the Radicals) from the non-socialist block. If he succeeded he would bring to an end the longest period of non-Social Democratic government this century. But of course he has still got a long way to go.
6. I am sorry to burden you with a drama of Twin Peaks complexity so soon after your arrival, but I thought you should be aware of this threat to Schluter's premiership.
Your
CC:
JR de Fonblanque Esq
UKREP BRUSSELS
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NCR Williams
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