CONFIDENTIAL
04/564
MDHIAN +68
69 PER CENT OF REGISTERED VOTERS, ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS POLLS SHOWED A SOMEWHAT LOWER RATE. THIS IS PROBABLY AN OVERESTIMATE, BUT IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SEPTEMBER ELECTIONS WILL PRODUCE THE HIGHEST VOTER TURNOUT EVER IN HONG KONG.
14 THE OPINION SURVEY EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT IN
備
THE DIRECT
ELECTIONS, THE PRO-DEMOCRACY PARTIES ARE HEADING FOR VICTORY. THE UNITED DEMOCRATS OF HONG KONG (HEADED BY MARTIN LEE AND SZETO WAH) WILL PROBABLY TAKE MOST OF THE DIRECTLY ELECTED SEATS, BUT THEIR CANDIDATES ARE COMING UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE OTHER PRO- DEMOCRACY PARTIES AND INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES. THE CONSERVATIVE BUSINESS-LED PARTY, THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC FEDERATION HAS PERFORMED POORLY AND WILL BE FORTUNATE TO WIN ANY SEATS. THIS IN PART REFLECTS THE RELUCTANCE OF ITS SENIOR FIGURES TO STAND FOR ELECTION AND A PERCEPTION IN THE COMMUNITY THAT THE PARTY HAS LITTLE ENTHUSIASM FOR DEMOCRACY. HOWEVER, THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC FEDERATION MAY DO BETTER IN THE FUNCTIONAL CONSTITUENCIES, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN A MAJORITY OF PRO-BUSINESS REPRESENTATIVES.
FORD
YYYY
ΜΑΙΝ
76
PRIME MINISTER'S VISIT TO
(CHINA AND HONG KONG)
LIMITED
FED
PUSD
HKD
NEWS D
PLANNERS
ADDITIONAL
2
PS/PM
NNNN
DISTRIBUTION
78
PROTOCOL D
RAD
PS
PS/LORD CAITHNESS
PS/PUS
SIR J COLES
MR BURNS
SIR P CRADOCK NO.10
PAGE
4
CONFIDENTIAL