CONFIDENTIAL
027031
MDHIAN 9772
PRO-PRC CANDIDATES ALSO FARED BETTER THAN MANY HAD EXPECTED. MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WAS THE PERFORMANCE OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC FEDERATION. (THIS PARTY IS WIDELY PERCEIVED AS 'CONSERVATIVE'' AND AS REPRESENTING THE INTERESTS OF THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, AS WELL AS BEING ACCOMMODATING TO PRC CONCERNS).
11. THE DB ELECTIONS WERE THE FIRST OF THREE SETS OF ELECTIONS THIS YEAR. THE URBAN COUNCIL AND REGIONAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS WILL TAKE PLACE IN MAY, AND THE FIRST EVER DIRECT ELECTIONS FOR THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL IN SEPTEMBER. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ''DEMOCRATIC'' GROUP OF PARTIES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THEIR ORGANISATION AND ELECTORAL APPEAL, WHEREAS THE 'CONSERVATIVE'' GROUP (BASED ON THE LDF) WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME MAJOR PROBLEMS IF THEY ARE TO MAKE ANY IMPACT IN SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER, THE ''CONSERVATIVES'' SHOULD DO BETTER IN THE INDIVIDUALLY-ELECTED FUNCTIONAL CONSTITUENCIES.
LAW AND ORDER
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12. THE PUBLIC HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE ANXIETY ABOUT WHAT IT PERCEIVES AS AN INCREASE IN CRIME LEVELS GENERALLY AND IN VIOLENT CRIME IN PARTICULAR. THE MAIN FOCUS OF PUBLIC CONCERN HAS BEEN A SERIES OF ARMED ROBBERIES IN RECENT MONTHS AND PERSISTENT SMUGGLING OF HIGH VALUE GOODS TO CHINA.
13. ALTHOUGH THE COMMUNITY'S ANXIETY IS GENUINE, THE REALITY IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO DETERIORATION IN THE CRIME STATISTICS. HONG KONG REMAINS A LAW-ABIDING, SAFE AND WELL-POLICED CITY. THE ATTENTION GIVEN TO RECENT CRIMES INVOLVING FIREARMS SIMPLY REFLECTS THE OUTRAGE OF A COMMUNITY WHICH EXPECTS THE HIGHEST STANDARDS OF PUBLIC ORDER.
THE ECONOMY
14. THE PUBLIC REMAINS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE HONG KONG ECONOMY'S CAPACITY TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM THE WORLD RECESSION. INDICATIONS THAT THE RECESSION IN THE U.S. AND U.K. WILL BE SHORT AND SHALLOW, COUPLED WITH STRONG GROWTH IN HONG KONG'S PRC HINTERLAND, HAVE ADDED TO A GROWING OPTIMISM ON ECONOMIC ISSUES.
15. THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY ANNOUNCED IN HIS RECENT BUDGET SPEECH THAT HE HAD REVISED HIS ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR 1991/1992 FROM 2.3 PER CENT TO 3.5 PER CENT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME ANXIETY ABOUT INFLATION (THE ANNUAL RATE IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO 12 PER CENT), THE PUBLIC REGARDS THE RATE OF GROWTH AS THE PRINCIPAL BAROMETER OF THE ECONOMY'S HEALTH.
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