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8.
At about the same time (I learnt from the responsible Commission official in DGI visiting Hong Kong between trips to Hanoi), the Commission are hoping to finalise their Scheme of Assistance. This is a good scheme, and one we have encouraged since it was first announced a year ago. The EC hope to organise a Pledging Conference in October.
The important thing is to avoid the scheme turning into a
further "pull" factor. I believe that the EC have this
point well on board (through the use of a cut-off date) but
that it is a point to watch. Meanwhile, we should
seriously consider timing the return of double-backers for
mid-September. The US angle will remain, and require careful handling. And we should not act before the Prime
Minister's visit. But we cannot delay this exercise
indefinitely. Hong Kong's capacity to absorb new arrivals
is now very limited (a maximum of 5,000 spare places) and
the figures of the first days of August are bad. Looking ahead, the new sailing season will start in January/February
next year.
It may well take three or four months to set up
a basic centre, even once agreement is reached. So, unless
we can reach agreement with Vietnam by the end of September,
we have all the ingredients for a major problem early next
year. You may be able to take matters forward yourself if
you meet the Vietnamese Foreign Minister in the margins
of UNGA.
ExCo/LegCo relationship
9.
Everyone in Hong Kong is speculating about the September direct elections to LegCo. Martin Lee is now widely expected to win 12-14 seats. As the largest
directly elected party his will wield considerable
influence. Ideally he should be brought into the fold and given a seat on ExCo. But he says he will not accept
ExCo's conventions of collective responsibility and
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