FEK 020/15
Reference
Mr Riordan, HKD, WH305
CHINA/REPUBLIC OF KOREA
You asked for comments on the current state of Sino-Korean relations.
1.
2.
Although the Republic of Korea now has relations with the Soviet Union and all Eastern European countries, relations are less advanced with China. But a ROK Trade Representative Office did open in Peking on 30 January this year and the Chinese equivalent opened in Seoul in April. Two-way trade has been growing steadily and is expected to reach US$4.5 billion this year.
3. Chinese intentions towards South Korea remain unclear. Although they supported the South's application to join the United Nations they have no so far made any public references to establishing diplomatic relations with them. It is therefore difficult to predict how events will
progress. It would there for be premature for the Dept it Tranips-r to mouc on the ASA ISSile
4. On a personal note however I do believe things are moving in a positive direction - the Foreign Ministers of China and the Republic of Korea met in New York during the General Assembly and the Chinese Foreign Minister will be visiting South Korea in November, albeit to take part in an APEC meeting. I believe it is significant that China is sending its Foreign Minister and I would not be surprised to see the establishment of diplomatic relations in early 1992. There have been newspaper reports indicating this possibility, but as I said before, there have been no formal announcements.
5. It is also significant that the North Korean leader visited China last week. This is an annual event but it is likely that the Chinese will have told the North Koreans of their intentions. I suspect the North Koreans will have used the visit to try and dissuade the Chinese from this course of action but I doubt that the Chinese will be easily dissuaded.
CODE 18-77
14 October 1991
IK9AOZ
Ian Danis
I Davies
Far Eastern Department WH233
270 2959