BRAINSTORMING DINNER

OUTLINE CHAIRMAN'S BRIEF

Propose broadly three themes:

(i) Where is China going?

(ii)

How can we best live with China?

(iii)

Hong Kong and China: How can we manage the transition?

(i)

China: Future Directions

Paradoxes:

On the one hand:

Massive country; 1.3 bn population.

Total GNP US $350.4 bn

Substantial regional power; P5 member; nuclear power

On the other hand:

Still a developing country; GNP per head only US $315

Still a Marxist, almost Stalinist leadership; highly

sensitive to perceived subversion from abroad,

particularly since collapse of communism in Eastern

Europe

!

So what of the future?

Leadership changes when Deng Xiaoping dies?

Change of direction when Deng dies?

Future of economic reform; inevitablity of political

reform?

Any likelihood of China becoming an easier bedfellow?

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