SECRET FM FCO
TO DESKBY 15233OZ HONG KONG
TELNO 76
OF 15130OZ JANUARY 91
INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING
SECRET
НИВ 182 12
91
55.
117237 MDHOAN 5553
PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR FROM MCLAREN, DUSS
PEKING PERSONAL FOR AMBASSADOR
? prob. limited. dist.
YOUR TELNO 141 PADS: GULF
1"
LIKE YOU, I AM NOT ATTRACTED TO THE IDEA OF YOUR RETURNING TO LONDON FOR CONSULTATIONS NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF GOING TO PEKING, AND FOR MUCH THE SAME REASONS. IN PARTICULAR:
(A) CANCELLATION WOULD BE SEEN BY THE CHINESE AS AN ATTEMPT TO PUT PRESSURE ON THEM AND WOULD THUS ADD TO THE PROBLEMS OF 'FACE' TO WHICH ALAN DONALD REFERS IN PEKING TELNO 39.
*(B) IT IS FAR FROM CLEAR THAT RAISING THE STAKES IN THIS WAY
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF FINDING A SATISFACTORY WAY FORWARD. IT MIGHT HAVE THE OPPOSITE EFFECT.
(C) MINISTERS ARE, AS YOU SAY, HEAVILY PREOCCUPIED BY THE GULF.
WITH THE BEST WILL IN THE WORLD, A MEETING WITH THE SECRETARY OF STATE WOULD BE LIKELY TO BE BRIEF AND SUBJECT TO LAST MINUTE CHANGE OR CANCELLATION. THAT WOULD NOT LOOK GOOD PRESENTATIONALLY IN HONG KONG.
2. WHILE THERE ARE CLEARLY RISKS INVOLVED IN YOUR GOING TO PEKING AGAINST THE UNPROMISING BACKGROUND OF LAST WEEKLE-EVENTS, I SHARE YOUR VIEW THAT THE BALANCE OF ADVANTAGE IS AGAINST POSTPONEMENT. I DOUBT WHETHER WE WILL GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF ASSURANCES ABOUT YOUR TREATMENT IN RESPONSE TO THE REPRESENT- ATIONS MADE BY LORD CAITHNESS AND IN PEKING, BUT SUBJECT TO ALAN DONALD'S VIEWS I DO NOT THINK THAT THE CHINESE WOULD WISH TO PUT YOU IN AN IMPOSSIBLE OR HUMILIATING POSITION. TO THE BEST OF MY RECOLLECTION THEY HAVE SOUGHT TO AVOID THIS DURING PRE- VIOUS GUBERNATORIAL VISITS, EVEN WHEN THEY TOOK PLACE IN EQUALLY DIFFICULT CIRCUMSTANCES. MOREOVER, I AM SURE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF ARRIVING AT A REASONABLY SATISFACTORY WAY OUT OF THE PRESENT