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01054
MDHIAN 2799
PROSPECTS FOR THE KURDS AFTER ALLIED WITHDRAWAL. BUT, IN RESPONSE TO OUR PRESSURE, THEY HAVE PUT BACK THEIR TIMETABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL. THEY HAVE NO FIXED DATE BUT ARE WORKING ON BEING OUT BY MID JULY.
SOVIET UNION AND EASTERN EUROPE
5. THE FUTURE OF THE SOVIET UNION IS NOW A MAJOR FOCUS OF POLITICAL AND MEDIA INTEREST. CONCERN ABOUT GORBACHEV'S PROSPECTS WAS BRIEFLY REVIVED BY PAVLOV'S BID FOR INCREASED POWERS. BUT US ENERGIES ARE FOCUSSED MAINLY ON ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC REFORM PROPOSALS OF PRIMAKOV AND YAVLINSKY (COPIES OF US PAPERS PASSED TO ERD): AND ON CRAFTING AN APPROPRIATE RESPONSE TO GORBACHEV AT THE
ECONOMIC SUMMIT.
6.
ON THE LATTER, NSC HAVE CONFIRMED TO US AGAIN THAT THERE CAN BE NO QUESTION OF A GRAND BARGAIN. THE PRESIDENT EXPLAINED THIS TO KOHL ON THE TELEPHONE ON 24 JUNE. HE ALSO EXPLAINED WHY ASSOCIATE MEMBERSHIP OF THE IMF AND US IDEAS FOR A SECTORAL APPROACH OFFERED THE BEST WAY FORWARD. NSC CONSIDER THAT OUR STRATEGIC AIM SHOULD NOW BE TO HELP THE RUSSIANS TO LIBERATE THEIR OWN RESOURCES, WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLE. THE PRESIDENT SPOKE TO GORBACHEV ON 21 JUNE, AND SAID HE HOPED THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE BEFORE THE SUMMIT FOR THEM TO TALK THROUGH THE CONSTRAINTS ON US FREEDOM OF ACTION, WHICH RULED
OUT BIG PACKAGES.
THE BALKANS AND EASTERN EUROPE
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7 DEVELOPMENTS IN YUGOSLAVIA CONTINUE TO CAUSE CONCERN. BAKER'S VISIT WAS EVIDENCE OF HOW SERIOUSLY THE US VIEW THE POTENTIAL FOR FRAGMENTATION AND CIVIL STRIFE. STATE CONCEDE, HOWEVER, THAT THERE IS LITTLE THEY CAN DO TO INFLUENCE THE PROCESS AT THIS STAGE. THE US WILL NOT RECOGNISE THE INDEPENDENCE OF SERBIA AND CROATIA. THE AMERICANS ARE RELATIVELY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR HUNGARY, CZECHOSLOVAKIA AND POLAND, MUCH LESS SO ABOUT BULGARIA, ROMANIA OR ALBANIA THEY WILL NOT WISH THE QUESTION OF POSSIBLE WESTERN HELP FOR THE USSR TO OVERSHADOW CONSIDERATION OF OUR POLICIES TOWARDS EASTERN EUROPE.
·
EUROPEAN SECURITY IDENTITY
8.
THE NATURE OF THE US'S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE LIES BEHIND US CONCERNS ABOUT THE CURRENT DEBATE ON A EUROPEAN SECURITY IDENTITY AS WELL AS SUCH ISSUES AS THE URUGUAY ROUND.
AMERICANS CONTINUE TO SAY THEY WELCOME AND SUPPORT MOVES TO GREATER
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