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010541
MDHIAN
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FM WASHINGTON
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 1730
OF 261635Z JUNE 91
INFO ROUTINE UKMIS NEW YORK, OTTAWA, BONN, PARIS, MOSCOW INFO ROUTINE UKDEL NATO, UKREP BRUSSELS, PRETORIA, BELGRADE INFO ROUTINE BUCHAREST, TEL AVIV, CAIRO, RIYADH, ACTOR, PEKING INFO ROUTINE HONG KONG
MY TELNO 1726: US FOREIGN POLICY CONCERNS
SUMMARY
1.
MIDDLE EAST NO LONGER DOMINATES, BUT REMAINS HIGH ON BAKER'S AGENDA. MUCH ATTENTION FOCUSSED ON THE FUTURE OF THE SOVIET UNION WORTH LOBBYING THE US CONGRESSMEN ON AND GORBACHEV AT THE SUMMIT.
MFN FOR CHINA AND BOAT PEOPLE.
DETAIL
2. THE FOLLOWING OVERVIEW OF THE MAIN FOREIGN POLICY CONCERNS IN WASHINGTON MAY BE USEFUL IN THE CONTEXT OF THE VISIT BY THE US CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION FOR THE BAPG'S 50TH ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS. (WE HAVE REPORTED SEPARATELY TO NAD THE SPECIFIC FOREIGN POLICY INTERESTS OF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE US DELEGATION.)
THE MIDDLE EAST
3.
ALTHOUGH THIS NO LONGER DOMINATES THE FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA, IT
ON CONTINUES TO TAKE MUCH OF BAKER'S AND THE PRESIDENT'S TIME. ARAB/ISRAEL, BAKER'S EFFORTS HAVE NOT SO FAR CREATED ANY CLEAR OPENINGS. HIS INITIATIVE IS NOW ON HOLD, PENDING DECISIONS ON HOW
THEY TO TAKE THE PEACE PROCESS FORWARD BY BAKER AND THE PRESIDENT. HAVE TO JUDGE HOW MUCH MORE POLITICAL CAPITAL IS WORTH INVESTING. MEANWHILE THE SENSE AT LOWER LEVELS OF THE ADMINISTRATION IS THAT BAKER'S INITIATIVE HAS RUN OUT OF STEAM, WITH ISRAEL LARGELY TO BLAME BUT WITH THE ARABS AT FAULT TOO.
THEY WANT TO SEE THE 4. ON IRAQ, US OBJECTIVES HAVE NOT CHANGED. BACK OF SADDAM HUSSEIN AND ARE DETERMINED TO MAINTAIN SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAQ. THEY ARE LESS WORRIED THAN WE ARE ABOUT THE
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