006402
2678
RESTRICTED
006402
MDHIAN 2678
REPUBLICANS
HAVE LARGELY CONFINED THEMSELVES TO POINTING OUT THAT THE BUDGET AGREEMENT MEANS THAT ANY INCREASE IN EXPENDITURE HAS NOW TO BE FINANCED BY MATCHING SPENDING CUTS OR TAX INCREASES, NOT NEW BORROWING: AND THE DEMOCRATS HAVE NOT YET EXPLAINED CLEARLY HOW THEY WOULD DO THIS. THE RECENTLY ANNOUNCED RESIGNATION (FOR AN EDUCATION POST) OF THE (BLACK) MAJORITY WHIP, CONGRESSMAN BILL GRAY, AND THE SUBSEQUENT BATTLE TO SUCCEED HIM, IS A FURTHER DISTRACTION FOR A CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP ACCUSED OF NOT GIVING SUFFICIENTLY CLEAR - OR PARTISAN DIRECTION TO THE PARTY.
9.
-
-
NEVERTHELESS, THE PRESIDENT SEES A NEED TO COUNTER CRITICISM OF HIS DOMESTIC POLICIES, AND HAS TAKEN THE PARTISAN ROAD ON HIS CRIME (MAINLY TOUGHER PENALTIES) AND TRANSPORTATION (LIMITED INCREASES IN ROAD-BUILDING) BILLS, AND HIS COMMITMENT TO A CIVIL RIGHTS BILL THAT HE ASSERTS WOULD AVOID QUOTAS. ON THE LAST, THE SENATE IS NEGOTIATING A BILL THAT SOME MODERATE REPUBLICANS HOPE THAT THE PRESIDENT WILL SIGN: BUT THE ELECTORAL APPEAL TO SOUTHERN WHITES AND NORTHERN ETHNICS OF STICKING THE QUOTA LABEL ON THE DEMOCRATS
IS NOT LOST ON THE WHITE HOUSE.
10.
ON
ONE OTHER PRIORITY FOR THE WHITE HOUSE IS BANKING REFORM, WHICH SOME SORT OF LEGISLATION (WATERED DOWN TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF LOCAL INTERESTS) IS LIKELY TO EMERGE FROM CONGRESS BY THE END OF THE YEAR. A BIPARTISAN COMMISSION'S RECOMMENDATION, ANNOUNCED ON 24 JUNE, THAT PARENTS SHOULD BE GIVEN A 1000 DOLLAR TAX CREDIT FOR EACH CHILD IS UNLIKELY TO BE OF MUCH NET POLITICAL BENEFIT TO EITHER SIDE, AND WOULD UNDERMINE THE BUDGET DEAL IF ENACTED. A CLOUD ON THE HORIZON FOR THE WHITE HOUSE IS THE THREAT OF A CONGRESSIONAL INQUIRY INTO ALLEGATIONS THAT THE REAGAN CAMPAIGN
CONSPIRED IN 1980 TO DELAY THE RELEASE OF THE HOSTAGES UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION. AND THE COMMISSION DECIDING ON MILITARY BASE
CLOSURES IS DUE TO REPORT IN EARLY JULY.
11. ONE AREA WHERE THE ADMINISTRATION MAY BE INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE IS HEALTH. BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MILLION AMERICANS HAVE NO HEALTH INSURANCE: AND A RECENT STUDY SHOWED THAT NEARLY A QUARTER OF TOTAL US HEALTH SPENDING (THE HIGHEST PER CAPITA IN THE WORLD) GOES ON ADMINISTRATION. THE DEMOCRATS MAY WELL TRY TO MAKE HEALTH CARE REFORM A MAJOR ELECTION ISSUE, COUPLED WITH ATTACKS ON THE ADMINISTRATION'S DOMESTIC RECORD IN GENERAL AND ITS OPPOSITION TO
TAX INCREASES FOR THE VERY RICH IN PARTICULAR.
PERSONALITIES
3
PAGE RESTRICTED