CONFIDENTIAL
T43000/4.
1991
CONFIDENTIAL
FM WASHINGTON
TO TELELETTER FCO
TELELETTER NFR
OF 012225Z JULY 91
AND TO TELELETTER PEKING, HONG KONG
FROM:
FOLLOWING FOR:
COPIED TO:
If
031321
MDTTAN 7174
not already hod
entere
176
SD PATTISON, WASHINGTON
M STONE ESQ, HONG KONG DEPT, FCO
A SEATON, FED, FCO CHANCERIES: PEKING
HONG KONG
9)
US/CHINA: MFN
1. ON 1 JULY I TALKED TO KENT WIEDEMANN (DIRECTOR, CHINA OFFICE, STATE) ABOUT CURRENT PROSPECTS FOR MFN. HE WAS OPTIMISTIC THAT, IN THE END, MFN WOULD BE SECURED WITHOUT CONDITIONS. HE POINTED OUT THAT NO-ONE ON THE HILL WAS ARGUING THAT MEN SHOULD BE REVOKED
IMMEDIATELY: THE LEGISLATION PASSING THROUGH THE HOUSE AND SENATE FOCUSED ON SETTING CONDITIONS FOR RENEWAL IN 1992 (ALTHOUGH THERE WERE PROVISIONS IN THE BILLS FOR IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL BEFORE THEN
IF CHINA ACTIVELY HELPED THIRD COUNTRIES DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS). THE ADMINISTRATION CONCEDED THAT A VETO FIGHT WAS INEVITABLE, BUT WIEDERMANN WAS OPTIMISTIC THAT THE PRESIDENT WOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN HIS VETO. HE TOOK COMFORT FROM THE FACT THAT ALL THE REPUBLICANS IN THE SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE HAD SUPPORTED THE
PRESIDENT WHEN THE MITCHELL BILL WAS DISCUSSED ON 27 JUNE.
2.
WIEDERMANN SAID THAT THE ADMINISTRATION HAD BEEN LOBBYING HARD ON THE HILL, PARTICULARLY AMONG REPUBLICANS. HE HIMSELF HAD PREPARED BRIEFING FOR FIVE CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS IN THE PAST FORTNIGHT. AND THE PRESIDENT HAD BEEN PERSONALLY VERY ACTIVE IN LOBBYING REPUBLICAN SENATORS. THIS APPEARED TO BE HAVING THE RIGHT EFFECT. THERE WAS NOW NO/NO THOUGHT WITHIN THE ADMINISTRATION OF
OFFERING SOME FORM OF CONDITIONALITY AS THE PRICE FOR SUSTAINING
THIS OPTION, HE EXPLAINED, HAD BEEN REJECTED BY THE PRESIDENT AND BAKER A FEW WEEKS AGO IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THEY WOULD, IN THE END, SECURE SUFFICIENT VOTES TO SUSTAIN A VETO. WIEDEMANN ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT, IF IT LOOKED AS THOUGH THE CONGRESSIONAL VOTES WERE NO LONGER THERE, HE COULD NOT EXCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONDITIONALITY BEING RECONSIDERED.
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