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9 August 1991
Мазок
Stephen Pattison Esq WASHINGTON
Dear Stephen,
Foreign & Commonwealth
Office
London SW1A 2AH
Telephone: 071-
ple
US/CHINA: MFN
195
Many thanks for your letter of 1 August and for keeping us so well informed generally on developments.
1.
2. The Senate vote last month did indeed go better than expected - and the Embassy's lobbying efforts may well have played a significant part. It is interesting that the Democrats may now be thinking of not challenging the President further this year, but keeping their powder dry for next year. Presumably renewal of MFN status next year could be even more problematic, given that it is an election year. If the Chinese have not made significant progress on human rights and non-proliferation, the President could come under significant pressure not to renew in order to gain votes.
3.
If the battle next year will be harder, it would be well worth our while using the intervening months to work up good domestic political reasons why President Bush should continue MFN. I have in mind such things as data showing that more American jobs would be lost than gained if China lost its MFN status and other cogent vote-winning points.
4.
Perhaps Peking and Hong Kong may also wish to comment.
Yaz aye,
Mühl.
M V Stone
Hong Kong Department
cc: Chancery, Peking
Trade & Industry Branch, Hong Kong
EELAMV
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