G.F. 324
RESTRICTED 內部文件
Conclusion
17.
In summary, if China loses it MFN status in the
United States, there is likely to be
(a)
of
2 reduction by 33% to 44% or of HK$27-36 billion
(US$3.5-4.6 billion) worth
Hong Kong'
re-exports of China origin to the United States.
Taking into account other related trade flowe
that would likewise be affected, in gross value
terms Hong Kong's overall trade would probably be
reduced by 5% to 7% or HK$69-91 billion
hillion) ·
Thie NONIA
Diitti
ng
(b) a loss in Hong Kong of around HK$7-10 billion
(US$0.9-1.2 billion) in income and around 32 000
to 43 000 in jobs as a direct impact
reduce the overall GDP by 1.3% TO 1 A
this impact in the proper context, the GDP growth
rate would be curtailed from its trend value
(5.5% in real terms per annum) by one-quarter to
one-third in the year of incidence; and
(c)
a further loss in income and jobs if China cute
back on its imports either from the United States
or generally.
ZMA
In the longer term, if manufacturing investment is diverted
elsewhere, Hong Kong's potential for economic growth
its role as a gateway to China would be undermined
considerably.
Economic Analysis Division Economic Services Branch Government Secretariat
Hong Kong
25 March 10an
RESTRICTED 內部文件