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III). A reduction of 33% to 44% in this total amount implies
that Hong Kong's overall trade would be reduced by HK$69-91 billion (US$9-12 billion) or by about 5% to im 1990
Economic damage likely to be incurred by Hong Kong as a result of China losing its MFN status in the United States
(A) Direct impacts
10.
estimated
an
Using 1990 as the reference year and based on
reduction of 33% to 44% in Hong Kong's re-exports of China origin to the United States, the following table shows, as a bare minimum, the estimated loss of jobs in the import/export trade and of value-added contributina
GDP.
to Tho
Proportion of re-exports from
China to USA likely to be
reduced
33%
44%
Estimated loss of jobs in the import/export
trade sub-sector (Number)
18 000
24 000
Estimated loss of value-added contribution
to GDP by the import/export
trade sub-sector
(HK$ Mn)
(US$ Mn)
4,001
513
5,335
684
Hong Kong's GDP
prices in 1990.
is estimated at HKS546 billion at current
Thus, as a bare minimum, the loss would
amount to 0.73% to 1% of the overall che
11.
finanAn
However, the loss in income could he considorably greater in view of the fact that (a) additional antivimine in the transport, storage. communicatione business services sectors are generated in support of the re-export
(b) those re-exports which manufactured
China
trade,
in
from
TAW
materiale
are
OnA
semi-manufactures imported from Hong Kong embrace greater contributions to the Hong Kong economy, and (c)
value-added
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05:6 C7-C TA.
ANDY ANDH
ZENH | NALINHAMNS
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