RESTRICTED 內部文件
An updated assessment of the impact on the Hong Kong economy of China's exports losing their MFN status in the United States
Tel No 915
Summary
If China loses its
States, there are likely to be :
MFN status in the United
a reduction by 33% to 44% or of HK$27-36 billion (US$3.5-4.6 billion) worth of Hong Kong's re-exports from China to the United States
together with other related trade flows, reduction by 5% to 7% or of HK$69-91 billion (US$9-12 billion) worth of Mama Kamala overal1 trade
a loss in Hong Kong of around HKS7-10 billion (US$0.9-1.2 billion) in income and around 32 000 to 43 000 in jobs as a direct impact; GDP growth rate likely to be curtailed hv 1.3 to 1 2 percentage points or by 1/4 to 1/3 from ite tranÀ value (5.5% in real terms per annum) in the vear of incidence
a further loss in income and jobs if China enta back on its imports as a result
significant
investment
adverse
ventures
effect
on manufacturing and other production
arrangements by Hong Kong and foreign comnanise in China; Hong Kong's role as gateway to China likely to be undermined considerably, affecting longer-term growth potential and business confidence in Hong Kong
thus
G.F. 324
RESTRICTED 內部文件
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