SECRET UK EYES A LOCSEN
15. Although previous disputes between HMG and China over Hong Kong
have not threatened security, the population may act more forcefully
as 1997 approaches. Moreover, the scope for differences in perceptions between London and Hong Kong on many issues is likely to
increase. The frustration of those who want to emigrate, but are
unable to acquire a foreign passport, would add to any hostility towards the British presence. Also, careful judgement will be needed
to determine what size of garrison should be left to the end, when
popular sensitivity and hostility towards the British element of the
administration could well be highest.
16.
Such issues will probably attract the attention of articulate
liberals who are likely to win a significant number of the 18 directly
elected seats in the Legislative Council this year. They may use this
platform to heighten public concern and, perhaps unintentionally,
raise the threat of disorder. In this respect indicators to watch
would include the formation of anti-HKG or HMG groups within the increasingly active political scene, and rifts between the Legislative
and Executive Councils.
17.
The Chinese would be concerned about the activities of liberals
who criticised Chinese policy towards Hong Kong or supported
dissidents in China, particularly if such people indulged in outspoken
attacks at a time of tension or disorder in Hong Kong.
18.
Should the Chinese leadership consider their vital interests to
threatened by developments in Hong Kong, military intervention
could not be discounted,
be discounted, despite the considerable political and
economic cost to China.
A-5
LOCSEN UK EYES A
SECRET