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be imprudent, at this stage, to plan firmly to withdraw the second
battalion in 1994. In order to retain flexibility that decision
should be linked to the 1993 Biennial Review. Such a linkage would allow, in addition to the other factors, timely consideration of the
prevailing political situation and very importantly, the effect of one
battalion having already withdrawn. Therefore, for all planning purposes, including financial, the unit should not now be assumed to
be withdrawn until early 1995 at the earliest.
79. The Third Battalion. In the period prior to handover, any force
remaining in Hong Kong will still need to be capable of acting in
support of the HKG. There must be no doubt about its commitment and
effectiveness. These factors are particularly relevant if morale in Gurkha units is suffering because of impending cuts). It has already
been made clear that in the event of serious unrest there may be a
need for HMG to demonstrate its intention to maintain sovereignty and
to provide a credible reserve for the RHKP. In order to underline
such resolve there is a minimum force, in view of the complexity of
Hong Kong, that can be accepted as competent for this task. It is
assessed that two battalions, with the commensurate level of combat
support, would be required to produce a credible response. It should
also be borne in mind that if the number of LEPS and LECS drops at all
in the final few months, as is currently predicted, there will be an
indeterminate number of low level administrative tasks which can only
fall on the resident units. Taking all these factors into account, it
is considered that maximum flexibility should be retained by
assuming now that such a force will include two battalions being
retained in theatre until late 1996/early 1997, together with an
acclimatised reserve battalion in Brunei; although the last few months
could see a phased reduction to a one battalion group. This option
should be reassessed in the 1993 and 1995 Biennial Reviews.
80.
Combat Support and Combat Service Support. The level of support
to the Garrison is covered in detail in Paragraphs 91 97, but it is
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