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27. The principal threat in the run-up to
run-up to 1997 is likely to be generated internally, and to take the form of a serious collapse in
political or economic confidence.
This could be caused by
developments in China and in Chinese policy towards the territory,
and/or a deterioration in the local economy. (For a more detailed
account of the threat to internal stability see Annex A).
28. Acute public concern on a number of such issues could provoke
outbreaks of violence that would threaten stability. In particular,
political turmoil in China, or serious economic problems in Hong Kong
such as a substantial rise in unemployment or a sustained fall in real incomes, could set in motion a series of mutually reinforcing trends
that might produce a major threat to Hong Kong's security. Although previous disputes between HMG and China over Hong Kong have not
threatened stability, the population may react more forcefully as 1997
approaches. Moreover, a perception that HMG was submitting to Chinese
pressure at the expense of Hong Kong and its people, could give rise
to anti-British sentiment. The frustration of those who want to
emigrate, but are unable to obtain a foreign passport, would add to
any hostility towards the British presence. Such tensions could be
exacerbated by elements within the Legislative Council.
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29. If a breakdown in internal security occured, it could be sudden.
The few instances of serious unrest that have taken place in Hong Kong
have generally been the result of flash incidents that escalated to
the point where the deployment of security forces became necessary.
The extent of any internal security problem would depend on the ability of the RHKP to contain unrest. It is questionable whether the
police, at present strength, could deal with extreme situations on
their own. In this respect the presence of the Garrison offers some
reassurance, in addition to its more obvious political and security
roles. Any decision to deploy the Garrison in support of the police
would, however, be delicate. Judgement would be required on the
extent to which the danger of exacerbating the situation by military
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