CODE 18-77
(2)
Redacted under FOI exemption section 27(1).
Reference
levels will be the same until the withdrawal of the 2nd battalion. Comment: the need for both services to have helicopters is weak: MOD may agree that one service can be shortly withdrawn.
Sea: The MOD intend to withdraw Hong Kong's three patrol boats in 1992. This is highly contentious. In 1990 MOD Ministers agreed that the boats would be retained until 1997 provided that HKG met a higher proportion of the operating costs of the vessels between 1992 and 1997.
The
4. "Options for change:" If these recommendations are approved by OPD Ministers, the residual force of Gurkhas by 1999 will number 2,500 instead of 4,000 as originally planned. Mr Sykes' (SAD) minute of 5 July refers. reduction in numbers has however been planned fully taking into account Hong Kong's needs. Any reduction below 2,500 would create difficulties.
5.
Assessment of the effect of such changes on foreign policy/dependent territory interests: A staged withdrawal of the Garrison will need careful handling with the Chinese but should not be to the detriment of Hong Kong's defence. As the 1991 review of the withdrawal plan suggests, the timings of the withdrawals of various parts of the Garrison. will be based on an assessment of the ability of the Hong Kong security forces to take over the duties it currently performs. (For example, the strength and ability of the Royal Hong Kong Police Force (RHKPF) and the Royal Hong Kong Auxiliary Air Force (RHKAAF) will determine the timings of the withdrawal of the 2nd battalion and reductions in garrison air support.) Withdrawal timings are therefore flexible and will be decided in future reviews in the light of prevailing circumstances.
•
6. However, if the Royal Naval Presence is withdrawn next year, there may be serious repercussions for HMG and Hong Kong. According to the Hong Kong Government and the Commander of the British forces in Hong Kong, there is still a military need for the craft until 30 June 1997. MOD UK do not acknowledge this. The patrol craft guarantee the boundaries of and sovereignty in Hong Kong waters, help to combat smuggling and deal with encroachments by Chinese patrol vessels. The Hong Kong marine police look to the Royal Navy for assistance in these areas. An increase in Chinese armed incursion into Hong Kong waters is expected if the craft are withdrawn.
7. The withdrawal of the craft may also create serious difficulties for the Hong Kong Government and HMG with the Chinese, who are likely to view the withdrawal of the craft as an attempt to undermine the rationale for their own naval presence after 1997.
WINALG
The withdrawal of the craft will also be
SECRET