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TELEPHONE CALL WITH ARCHIE HAMILTON MP: ROYAL NAVAL PRESENCE
AFLOAT IN HONG KONG
Greatly concerned that MOD and HKG are unable to agree on financing of Royal Naval patrol boats in Hong Kong after 1992. Sir Michael Quinlan's latest letter uncompromising.
Do not underestimate MOD's budgetary difficulties. there are strategic issues at stake for HMG.
But
Political: Withdrawing patrol craft would send bad signal
Would be seen as to Peking about our commitment to Hong Kong. signalling diminution of our resolve to administer Hong Kong to 1997. Putting Hong Kong police crews on the ships would not help.
Military: The Chinese threat is real. Twenty-nine incursions last year. Reinforced Rules of Engagement agreed last Spring as a result. You may have seen reports in today's press that Deng Xiaoping has said troops would be sent into Hong Kong after 1997 to crush any rebellion. Shows need to be vigilant before 1997. Both Governor and CBF believe there must be sufficient backup for the Marine Police to 1997.
Governor faces real problems. Major political effort required to secure the voluntary contribution of £15 million to the Gulf War. Governor has bent over backwards to accommodate MOD concerns yet retain the Royal Navy presence. But re-opening the DCA would be politically impossible in Hong Kong. Would be regarded as reneging by HMG. Sums involved in keeping patrol craft on are small: MOD's share (35% of the running costs) likely to be £7.5 million to 1997.
- History of the 80s underlines folly of signalling a lowering of our guard in this way (cp, Falklands: HMS Endurance). Recent JIC assessment (Threat to Hong Kong) flagged up the dangers. MOD review of Withdrawal Plan underway. Proper Ministerial discussion needed before decisions are taken which will have a profound impact in Hong Kong.